Seasonal Forecasts
It’s been a fascinating December through February 2015-16 across the US with wild swings on both sides of the ‘extreme temperature’ ledger as well as a record setting East Coast blizzard. The front end of winter (December 1 through January 15) was strongly dominated by the peaking of the record tying super El Nino. This helped present […]
While meteorological winter may have been a disappointment, I am liking what I’m seeing for March. Stratospheric warming may finally become favourable for a sustained cold pattern across Europe with 50mb warming crossing over Greenland and core of vortex displaced into Scandinavia. Here’s the GFS ensemble 50mb NH temps. Check out the weakening and displacement of […]
This year’s record tying super El Nino significantly dominated at least the first half of the 2015-16 winter season. El Nino related or not, it was also another year with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which has resulted in a warmer than normal December through February period. Lack of blocking has meant the Atlantic flow has ruled but as the […]
We have a very interesting pattern next 7-10 days with a series of systems sweeping west to east. The first two will ride north and west of the I-95. That means rain and warm temps DC to Boston but heavy snow for Chicago, Indianapolis and Detroit. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] I’ve already stated in the video earlier that […]
With high to the north and lows redirected to the south across France and Spain, we have a nice settled spell of winter weather. Bright sunny days, cold, frosty nights but the real focu of ‘weather’ will be southern France and Iberia this week into the weekend as a series of lows swing underneath the […]
With the rebound from negative to neutral Arctic Oscillation, subtropical warmth has made a return to the mid latitudes. Note the warmth over much of the United States and Europe with a return to cold over Greenland. 6 days from now it’s opposite as the AO is heading back into the tank. The heat first started across Southern […]
The rebound in the negative to neutral Arctic Oscillation has brought the return of milder low latitude air back into the mid latitudes and to both sides of the Atlantic hence the record warmth over the United States and very mild 13-15C across the southern UK! With the neutral AO, check out the presence of warmth over […]
We have a big north-south contrast in air mass this weekend with Greenland air blowing across Northern Ireland and Scotland while Azores air crosses southern Ireland, England and Wales. There’s a sharp thermal gradient splitting the UK and depending upon whether your north or south will determine snow showers or rain showers as well as a […]
When looking back at the Canadian February solution issued back in Jan 31 and what actually happened, Id say it’s done a pretty good job, especially with it’s 500mb height anomaly. It had the right idea with temps but not cold enough from Minneapolis to Atlanta. Canadian for February. 2m anomaly Actual anomaly to date. If February […]
For a second straight morning, many across Central Scotland woke to a fresh, albeit light covering of snow. As well as the overnight snow showers, ice became a significant hazard shortly after dark last night under clear skies and light winds. Check out this lovely snow and sky shot captured on a train in the Carstairs area […]
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