The rebound in the negative to neutral Arctic Oscillation has brought the return of milder low latitude air back into the mid latitudes and to both sides of the Atlantic hence the record warmth over the United States and very mild 13-15C across the southern UK!

With the neutral AO, check out the presence of warmth over both North America and Europe just now.

The arctic and subtropics is currently at battle over the UK.

Ocean modified Greenland air is present across Scotland and will sink back south later Sunday into Monday.

The AO returns to a negative state this upcoming week.

Look at the difference 6 days from now.

Why? Stratospheric warming has re fired across the arctic and warmth finally looks to cross over Greenland late February. This could set up an exciting March.

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Especially if the Canadian has anything to go by for March.

The MJO projected to enter phase 8 also promotes a colder pattern.

As for the current setup, it’s all about the big contrast north-south over the UK.

Here’s why!

We’re pulling in air from the subtropical central Atlantic. 15C likely between Bristol and London tomorrow while we pull in air from Greenland across Scotland. Maximum of just 5C widely with significant hill snow and mixing at low levels. I still suspect a change to snow even at low levels later Sunday as winds veer NNW.

Colder Through Next Week?

It looks like we have a blocking high develop from mid next week with brings down arctic air through the second half of next week.

ECMWF 500mb height anomaly snap shots.

 

There is increasing confidence that blocking will finally hold over Greenland and North Atlantic in response to the more favourable strat warming late month into March.

I’m heading for the Highlands early tomorrow morning with a friend to hopefully tick more ‘munros’ off my list so won’t have a post tomorrow. Full update come Monday!

See this evening’s video for the discussion.

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