While meteorological winter may have been a disappointment, I am liking what I’m seeing for March.

Stratospheric warming may finally become favourable for a sustained cold pattern across Europe with 50mb warming crossing over Greenland and core of vortex displaced into Scandinavia.

Here’s the GFS ensemble 50mb NH temps. Check out the weakening and displacement of the vortex through the next 10 days.

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Up till now, the orientation of 50mb warming has favoured cold over east Asia and at times North America but not Europe. With a polar vortex displaced towards Greenland and Europe, colder air aloft supports a negative height field, hence Icelandic low pressure and frequent depressions hitting the UK and Ireland.

Warmth up at 50mb over Greenland supports a positive height field.

As we head towards late week, Atlantic low pressure will try to push into the UK but it comes up against the residence of cold in place. This cold high forces the low south where it presents a cold, wet, windy and snowy weekend for Iberia and France.

High pressure between Iceland and Scotland and a low over France means cold ENE winds blowing off Denmark across the UK.

GFS surface late week into this weekend.

A front may push across the UK Tuesday next week but more cold northerly, then northeast winds return towards the end of next week as the upper setup becomes similar to this weekend.

 

With the above 50mb strat warming, the models are finally seeing a ‘hook up’ between North Atlantic and Arctic/Greenland high which forces the trough to deepen over Western Europe.

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies Day 1-14

2 metre temp anomalies Day 1-14

GFS snow through next 10 days.

Interesting times ahead!

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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