It’s been a fascinating December through February 2015-16 across the US with wild swings on both sides of the ‘extreme temperature’ ledger as well as a record setting East Coast blizzard.
The front end of winter (December 1 through January 15) was strongly dominated by the peaking of the record tying super El Nino.
Credit: NOAA
This helped present the Eastern US with it’s warmest Christmas Eve and December on record.
Christmas Eve anomalies.
Credit: Climate Reanalyzer
Credit: AccuWeather
Shorts and T-shirt weather in New York.
Credit: USA Today
Even southern Quebec enjoyed 70F. Unprecedented for this far north in December!
This air flow could be traced all the way back to the tropics. An unusually strong Bermuda high acted as a heat pump or wheel.
Credit: NOAA
December temperature anomaly
Credit: Michael Ventrice
Credit WBZ
January turned out cooler and much cooler than December but there was spells of warmth as well as some snow and cold through the first 20 days.
Then came the Blizzard of 2016!
Day before
Credit: NASA
Day after
Credit: NASA
Credit: NWS
Credit: NWS
Baltimore, MD
Credit: Sally @salbal09
January temperature anomaly
Credit: Michael Ventrice
February is by far the wildest month with a warm start, helped by stratospheric cooling and return of a +AO but a resurge of strong stratospheric warming drove down the coldest air mass in decades for the Northeast.
Historic Arctic Outbreak Brings Coldest Air In Decades
A major stratospheric warming surge crossed the pole and drove a piece of the polar vortex straight into the Northeast for the coldest Valentines Day on record.
Credit: Met Check
Sunday morning (Feb 14) lows. -9 in Boston was coldest since 1957, -1 in New York (Central Park) was coldest since Jan 1994 and coldest in February since 1967.
Boston area
Credit: WeatherBug
NYC area
Credit: WeatherBug
Exceptional turnaround within 36 hours
Credit: NWS
Snow cover once again wiped as a week following a ‘high of just 12F in Boston and 15F in New York Valentines weekend, the following weekend saw highs in the 60s for both cities.
Despite Boston shivering at it’s coldest level in 59 years, February 2016 is ending +1F above normal.
Credit: WBZ
February so far in NYC.
Credit: NWS
Been a warm winter overall for Boston.
Credit: WBZ
Little Northeast snow cover Feb 22.
Credit: NASA
February temperature anomaly
Credit: Michael Ventrice
This winter still stands as top 1-3 warm winter for the Northeast.
Seasonal snowfall totals through Feb 16.
Credit: NWS
Credit: NWS
Could every state wind up warmer than normal this winter?
Credit: NOAA Regional Climate Centers
Cold March On The Way?
After we saw a regroup and cooling of the polar stratosphere which brought the return of record warmth following the historic arctic blast, we’re now seeing another major wave of warming which suggests the return of positive heights across Arctic Canada and an Eastern trough. We also have the continuation of a highly active storm track. The models are bullish on driving the ridge up the western flank of North America and hooking it up with a ridge developing over Greenland. This will set the stage for a potentially wild and at times, very cold March.
Here’s that resurge in warming at 50mb over the Arctic.
CFSv2 weekly shows the right idea day 1-10 but gets lost thereafter.
Credit: WeatherBug
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Canadian shows a nice 500mb pattern for March.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
TOP IMAGE CREDIT: New York Post/Chad Rachman
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