Seasonal Forecasts
You can’t argue with the stats, winter 2015-16 is going down as one of the warmest and wettest on record with many seeing a top 5, even top 2 warm Dec-Feb period. No question, this can be directly attributed to the record tying El Nino which produced the warmest December on record, coinciding with the peaking of the […]
On the meteorological calendar, we end winter today and commence spring tomorrow. Winter 2015-16 will be remembered not for it’s cold and snow but warm and wet. The bulk of the warmth came during December, coinciding with the likely peaking of this years record tying El Nino which overwhelmed the entire hemispheric pattern. Nov-Dec Although […]
While the next two lows in the series are likely to track west of the DC to Boston corridor, the ECMWF says it’s 3rd time lucky Fri-Sat as a cold trough deepens, forcing the storm track south of DC. First of all, we have another major storm system this week which is likely to bring a sizable snow […]
Wouldn’t this be great to see in March following the UK’s 3rd warmest winter on record! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Combine the above collapse of the PV projected by GFS ensemble above with the MJO entering phase 8 which gives this for March… and models day 5-10 show this… We cannot rule out an impressive cold spell, […]
Am I missing something? It appears we have a full blown sudden stratospheric warming event underway with the apparent collapse of the polar vortex. MJO is within phase 8 (cold phase) and yet the models aren’t showing much in response. Is it me or is it the models simply not seeing what’s happening within the arctic atmosphere? […]
As expected, a blocking high situated across the Northern UK has deflected Atlantic energy south and a deep Atlantic low is producing strong wind, low level rain and heavy snow across much of interior Spain. This low is dragging arctic air with it and as a result, today will probably be the coldest of winter […]
We of course saw the nasty multiday severe outbreak up the East Coast this week and unfortunately next week could deliver a similar scenario as another large and powerful storm system looks to take a similar track keeping the East Coast initially within the warm, moist and most unstable side. While the latest run of the GFS doesn’t suggest quite the juicy environment […]
With a chilly but settled end to February, it looks as though meteorological winter’s final month will end up slightly below normal temperature wise. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The ECMWF shows a nice blocky, chilly look next 5 days for UK and Western Europe. Interesting but not surprising, the blocking looks to hold day 5-10. Looking good for a continuation of […]
A sprawling storm system connecting Mexico with Canada brought two very different types of weather between Midwest and East. On the cold side, heavy snow, even blizzard conditions buried parts of the Lower Midwest while warm, moist air and intense upper energy brought a multiday severe weather outbreak from Louisiana to Florida up to Massachusetts. [s2If […]
On Sunday, 21 February 2016, my friend Petr Kolegar and myself took off from a rainy Cumbernauld at 4am for the Cairngorms, despite a poor weather forecast, I wanted to experience what winter had to offer in the Scottish mountains. Without the experience and knowledge of Czech born, Petr, I would not have attempted this myself. We both knew […]
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