Am I missing something? It appears we have a full blown sudden stratospheric warming event underway with the apparent collapse of the polar vortex. MJO is within phase 8 (cold phase) and yet the models aren’t showing much in response. Is it me or is it the models simply not seeing what’s happening within the arctic atmosphere?

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This is just beautiful for winter weather lovers if you ask me…

It’s held tough, particularly through December hence the record warmth both sides of the Atlantic but it looks like it’s finally about to give up!

Here’s that phase 7 into 8.

This is the kind of 500mb height anomaly pattern you’d expect to see in March given the strat warming and phase 8 MJO.

US snowfall next 7 to 10 days.

EPS Control next 15 days (5-day average)

GFS ens

Sure there’s two corridors of relatively heavy snow for the Northeast but the ECMWF shows one real chance of coastal Northeast snowfall within the next 10 days and some modest cold shots.

See this evening’s video for the discussion.

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