Rest of Europe
Going to take a look at the ECMWF perspective on the next 7-10 days as I’ve focused a lot recently on the GFS. Bertha certainly left her mark and is slowly winding down over the North Sea but unfortunately, her cool, showery farewell looks to linger into Thursday and Friday before a low near Iceland […]
After producing damaging winds, shutting down festivals and events as well as causing significant flooding from Cardiff to Scotland North Coast, former tropical cyclone Bertha is not done with Europe yet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The system will continue to spin as a deep low over the North Sea, eventually weakening and filling later this week into […]
Well the GFS has hands down beaten the ECMWF on Bertha’s track as well as intensity, deepening from 1001mb off SW Britain to now nearer 978mb off Aberdeen. As Bertha tracked NNE the system continued to deepen as seen by the GFS with wind speeds and rainfall increasing. The combination of Highland topography and very warm water (compared to normal) over […]
Rainfall has been most significant so far with Ex-tropical storm/hurricane Bertha which continues to drive intense rain pulses and lines of thunderstorms north over Ireland and the UK as well as France into the Low Countries. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Despite Bertha no longer being tropical, these systems still retain tropical energy, helped by a warmer than normal […]
While we know the remnants of Bertha is coming, it’s now a question of how big the impact is and what next. The GFS is clearly much stronger with Bertha than the ECMWF. Interestingly the GFS has been consistent at taking Bertha into the central or southern UK, likely producing gales (maybe not just inland) as well […]
We’ve entered a very different weather pattern across Western Europe in the past week with the complete breakdown of the ridge and return of a more typical Atlantic driven pattern. The pattern turns increasingly unsettled this weekend as we’ve got a soaking low swinging into southern Britain from the SW, well ahead of former hurricane […]
It’s always amazing to see the hype and misleading information spouted by the tabloids at this time of year when there’s mention of a former tropical cyclone coming our way. This is classic of the Daily Express. To support a hurricane, you MUST have water temperatures of 26C or greater with little to no mid and upper […]
Well it’s back to Bertha this morning and the potential for a major impact on Ireland and the UK this weekend. IT’S WAY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE A DEFINNATIVE FORECAST AND WEAKENING FROM MODELS IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE, BUT, the latest GFS is printing out some interesting and potentially problematic impacts if true. In her current […]
Has the summer pattern snap occurred earlier than first thought? That’s the big question I’m asking myself this morning given the general consensus of model output. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] It’s certainly looking more unsettled and for longer than first thought and as the atmosphere begins cooling and the jet strengthens, that very warm water surrounding us, […]
While one low lifts north, another up near Iceland will send a front towards the UK Tuesday-Wednesday bringing more wet, breezy weather to particularly the western UK and much of Ireland. Till then, a weak, skinny ridge builds in bringing back warm sunshine. It’s that time of year when the tropics begin to heat up (disturbance-wise) […]
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