Rainfall has been most significant so far with Ex-tropical storm/hurricane Bertha which continues to drive intense rain pulses and lines of thunderstorms north over Ireland and the UK as well as France into the Low Countries.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Despite Bertha no longer being tropical, these systems still retain tropical energy, helped by a warmer than normal NE Atlantic. Rainfall is coming in true tropical fashion, within pulses and banding features. We’re seeing that over parts of England and Wales with parts of Cardiff  and other areas underwater.

Latest radar via the Weather Channel App.

Heavy, thundery rainfall within the mid-latitudes can often by enhanced by warmer than normal water beneath low pressure. An Ex-tropical system combined with +4 or 5C waters will certainly support big rain totals and fuel for the atmosphere to really enhance convective energy.

Ex-tropical cyclones are also big lightning producers.

Last 6 hours.

Pressure will continue falling as Bertha crosses from Atlantic to North Sea. Modelling supports a peaking of intensity with maximum low pressure depth near 976mb over the oil fields between Scotland and Denmark Monday AM.

Latest GFS surface maps.

Models and windstream projections show a tightening of Bertha’s windfield with strongest winds focused over the North Sea and along the Dutch and Danish coasts tomorrow as the centre really winds up into a classic gale-centre. Gales today for UK coasts but I suspect the worst winds will be over the eastern North Sea and against the near continent coast tomorrow with gusts topping 80 mph, perhaps stronger on oil platforms which rise 150-200ft above the choppy surface of the North Sea.

Here’s a projected windstream chart for tomorrow AM off MeteoEarth.

The system is being energised by the collision of warm and cold air, warmer than normal SST’s and a system which has retained some of it’s tropical energy. A powerhouse 130kt jet stream will support enhanced deepening east of the UK tomorrow.

Strong low level jet out over the North Sea, beneath the jet and just above the surface!

Though surface winds are strong just south and east of the centre over the UK (especially on windward sides of exposed coasts and hills) the strongest winds are projected to be out over the open North Sea tonight and tomorrow.

Wave heights to peak off southern Norway coast, potentially reaching close to 30ft!

The system appears to linger over the North Sea/Norwegian Sea well into the upcoming work week, making for a cool, blustery and showery first half of the week, particularly over the N UK, Scandinavia down through Denmark and the Netherlands.

Up to 5 inches of rain seen by the QPF for several areas over the next 96 hrs.

I’m having technical issues today so unable to post a video. Hope to have one for tomorrow.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]