Rest of Europe
As pointed out in recent days, we’ve got the chilliest air flow driving south over the UK in several months and it sure is a shock to the system following a mild May, June and July. While chilly with frost and even hill snow across parts of the North as well as Iceland, Scandinavia and the […]
The latest CFSv2 weeklies (through Sep 12) shows Greenland ridge/western Europe trough dominance through mid Sep. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] This NORTH ATLANTIC blocking trend is something WE DIDN’T see at this time last year. However, for all you snow geese out there like myself, let’s not get over excited but merely watching this pattern as we head into autumn […]
There are interesting changes going on in the upper atmosphere with blocking becoming more and more of a feature over the North Atlantic. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] For the first time in a fair few months, the NAO is tanking. May this be a reaction to the shift from west to east in the QBO and this being a […]
After a brief respite from the blustery showers and longer spells of rain yesterday, today has seen the return of wetter conditions. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As we head into the weekend, the GFS has another deep low close to the UK (just off NE Scotland) which looks set to bring another dose of coastal/high ground gales. Windy elsewhere. The more […]
The title says it all. It ain’t happening! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Current SST’s CFSv2 projections. On par with the modoki Nino or central Pacific based Nino which supports in itself a colder N America and Europe for the winter ahead. Jamstec sees it! [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Going to take a look at the ECMWF perspective on the next 7-10 days as I’ve focused a lot recently on the GFS. Bertha certainly left her mark and is slowly winding down over the North Sea but unfortunately, her cool, showery farewell looks to linger into Thursday and Friday before a low near Iceland […]
After producing damaging winds, shutting down festivals and events as well as causing significant flooding from Cardiff to Scotland North Coast, former tropical cyclone Bertha is not done with Europe yet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The system will continue to spin as a deep low over the North Sea, eventually weakening and filling later this week into […]
Well the GFS has hands down beaten the ECMWF on Bertha’s track as well as intensity, deepening from 1001mb off SW Britain to now nearer 978mb off Aberdeen. As Bertha tracked NNE the system continued to deepen as seen by the GFS with wind speeds and rainfall increasing. The combination of Highland topography and very warm water (compared to normal) over […]
Rainfall has been most significant so far with Ex-tropical storm/hurricane Bertha which continues to drive intense rain pulses and lines of thunderstorms north over Ireland and the UK as well as France into the Low Countries. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Despite Bertha no longer being tropical, these systems still retain tropical energy, helped by a warmer than normal […]
While we know the remnants of Bertha is coming, it’s now a question of how big the impact is and what next. The GFS is clearly much stronger with Bertha than the ECMWF. Interestingly the GFS has been consistent at taking Bertha into the central or southern UK, likely producing gales (maybe not just inland) as well […]
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