We’re currently in a north-south split with high pressure dominating Scotland while low pressure has been very influential across more Southern parts. As we enter the late week into weekend period, another low pushes in from the Atlantic bringing a much more uniform sun and shower regime across the board including Scotland but what’s more eye catching is the system taking aim at Iceland later Sunday!

Below is the latest GFS surface charts which show the late week/early weekend low which will bring breezy, showery weather to the UK and Ireland but note the system which heads for Iceland later in the day Sunday. This could be a problem to power supply in southern Iceland if it’s a strong as particularly the ECMWF believes.

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This system is currently Hurricane Christobal, over 2,000 miles from UK shore but like we saw with Bertha, the system will eventually interact with colder water and make that transition from tropical to extra tropical. Once cold core and it feels the warm-cold air masses surrounding it, the models show a redeepening and this may be significant. What will also be significant is the potential surge of warmth it brings to the UK and the reshaping of the upper air pattern following it.

Notice the WIDESPREAD ridge which builds over the UK and Western Europe in the wake of Christobal’s passby! Interesting!

The ECMWF takes a deeper and more tightly wound Christobal towards Iceland’s SW coast. Pressure looks to be well into the 960s. Like the GFS, it has the heat surge into the UK!

The warm surge can be seen at 5,000ft over the UK.

Take a look at the 500mb height anomaly later Sunday.

The GFS ensemble shows beautifully the return of a SUSTIANED high pressure regime for Western Europe late weekend right through next week. Looking great for getting some BBQ’s and outdoor activities in. Be mindful of the cooldown after dark though!

See this morning’s video for discussion!

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