We’re catching a break from the wet weather in the Friday through Sunday time frame as ridging between two lows builds into the UK.

However, as skies clear tonight, so we can expect the coldest night since spring with a rural frost possible.

Come late Sunday into Monday that high shifts into the North Sea and eventually near continent while another Atlantic low sweeps wind and rain into the UK to start the new work week. However the worst of the weather shall be more across southern Ireland and mainland Britain.

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Looking rather wet early to mid next week across southern/central UK extending into France.

The GFS has that system clearing with a northern high building in but notice a front appears to advance into NW parts of the UK thanks to a low near Iceland by Thursday.

Pattern Change Coming?

Deep negative NAO looks to flip once into September. Important to note the -NAO’s in August, do tend to flip positive for a time in September which often brings a late spell of summer to Ireland, UK and Western Europe.

Lo and behold, the CFSv2 shows the N Atlantic/Greenland/Davis Straits blocking high breaking down AFTER week 2 (negative back to positive in the NAO) and trough settling over the N Atlantic with ridging underneath running from the US to UK but it’s worth a watch since it’s 2-3 weeks away.

Check out turnaround in the 500mb field through the next 16 days off the GFS ensemble.

 

Does this suggest a heatwave by mid Sep? No but it likely suggests some more ridging, warmer, drier and more settled weather with a chance of some late summer conditions.

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