If only it were winter, THIS pattern would be perfect for cold and snow lovers.

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Nice strong blocking high over southern Greenland which the core of this pretty deep trough is centred over the North Sea!

The blocky nature of the current pattern means a slow eastward progression with N Atlantic ridging building in mid week, helping kick into Scandinavia the North Sea low with it’s cold, backwide N winds sweeping late summer arctic air into the UK. It’s a cool but more settled mid to late week period but that nagging northerly flow returns briefly by Friday into the early weekend before a new Atlantic low appears to approach the UK from SW through the weekend. (According to ECMWF)

Looking ahead, the NAO appears to remain firmly negative through the remainder of August with the ECMWF showing a negative over the UK, positive over S Greenland through the 27th.

ECM Control carries the same pattern through Sep 1.

While this may be a good sign for the longer term, I want to emphasize. Given many great winter’s including 09-10 and previous (1960s, 70) had more often that not, downward solar trends, weak El Ninos and-NAO trends in late summer/autumn, there’s often a burst back to positive. MANY often panic, thinking that’s it! We saw a warm, very wet November and then winter hit hard and held from around Dec 15/18th on. Keep that in mind!

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