After a mainly dry, bright and settled weekend, it’s all change to start the new working week as a rather soggy low pushes into southern and central parts of the UK as well as Ireland.

In contrast the southern parts of the UK, it’s bright and breezy across Scotland thanks to high pressure over the Norwegian Sea extending south. Thanks to that high providing clear skies and light winds, Highland Scotland saw it’s coldest night since spring with a widespread frost to the north of the Central Lowlands. Braemar was the cold spot with a low of -2.1C this morning.

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Some overnight lows via Highland Weather.

Braemar -2.1c Dalnahaitnach -1.9c Glenlivet -1.2c Aviemore -1.1c Kinbrace Hatchery -1.0c Dalwhinnie -0.8c

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts through this week. Note the worst of the wet weather stays south of Scotland but low pressure becomes dominant late week before ridging begins to take charge this weekend into early next week.

This high provides a lot of heat to the Northern UK in June and July but by August’s end into early September, it is a cool high which makes for cold and often early frosty morning’s.

In recent posts I’ve been alluding to the possibility of a pattern change by the end of week 1 of September. High pressure still looks to make more of an impression but if we look at the latest GFS ensemble, it’s more of a cool, Norwegian Sea high. That would make for bright, sunny and mild days but nights would be rather cold with a chance of a widespread early frost.

Here’s the latest NAO projection according to the GFS Ens. Notice the double dip and a struggle to reach reach neutral.

This should more of a northern (blocking) type high rather than a warmer, Azores high. Still good but less summer-like feeling.

GFS Ensemble 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies show the strengthening of high pressure over the Norwegian Sea extending south over the UK through the next 16 days.

The same model, same run shows below normal temps for the same 16 day period. It’s seeing the cold nights following mild sunny days which may bring average or even a little above average highs but overnight dips should outweigh any warmth by day.

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