We’ve entered a very different weather pattern across Western Europe in the past week with the complete breakdown of the ridge and return of a more typical Atlantic driven pattern. The pattern turns increasingly unsettled this weekend as we’ve got a soaking low swinging into southern Britain from the SW, well ahead of former hurricane Bertha. A lot of attention is drawn to Bertha but if models are correct, we may be dealing with flooding Saturday BEFORE Bertha sweeps in with gales and more heavy rains.

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Models have converged with a southern or central UK hit sometime Sunday with the latest GFS showing quite the wind as well as rainmaker. Two widespread 1-2 inch rain events could bring flooding issues quickly back but the good news is that Britain has dried out well following the record wet winter.

I must admit that the pattern we’ve seen through June and July appears to have snapped earlier than I expected. Troughiness looks to be the dominant feature of this month with both CFSv2 and GFS agreeing.

As for Saturday, a very moist system appears to push up into the southern UK bringing WIDESPREAD heavy, persistent rain, breezy too, then comes Bertha and this looks to be a pretty decent wind maker as well as rain. The GFS has a ridge over the continent blocking Bertha’s eastward progress and thus has the system stuck, spinning away over or near the UK well into next week. This may mean a sustained period of frequent heavy showers or longer spells of rain as well as wind. Gales or severe gales will likely impact exposed coastal areas as well as higher ground. Don’t be surprised if we get 80 mph gusts with this. Especially any areas which find themselves just south of the centre.

Here’s a close up of former Bertha directly over the UK as seen by the model.

Could see gusts top 80 mph on the southern edge of the centre, beneath the nose of an unusually strong summer jet stream.

150kt jet in early Aug?

NAO looks likely to stay negative through the rest of the month.

Supports a UK trough which means unsettled but that doesn’t mean there won’t be warm, sunny days too.

See today’s video for discussion!

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Tags: bertha, hurricane bertha