After producing damaging winds, shutting down festivals and events as well as causing significant flooding from Cardiff to Scotland North Coast, former tropical cyclone Bertha is not done with Europe yet.

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The system will continue to spin as a deep low over the North Sea, eventually weakening and filling later this week into the weekend. The question is what follows Bertha?

According to general model agreement, the wet and windy weather is not done, in fact this abrupt pattern shift following a warm, drier than normal June and July appears to be here to stay with a line of lows looking set to run across the UK bringing further wind and heavy rain.

The latest GFS surface charts through the next week to 10 days says it all but as posted yesterday, often these sharp flips from settled to unsettled during August, often is followed by decent weather in September before another round of wet and windy hits later in autumn.

Note the GFS has another deep low pushing in from the SW around the 20th. Since the GFS was excellent with Bertha, may be worth watching that.

QPF sees the train of lows pushing into the UK over the next 7 days with plenty of moisture associated.

CFSv2 has a wetter than normal August through October period for the UK.

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