Has the summer pattern snap occurred earlier than first thought? That’s the big question I’m asking myself this morning given the general consensus of model output.

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It’s certainly looking more unsettled and for longer than first thought and as the atmosphere begins cooling and the jet strengthens, that very warm water surrounding us, may bring heavier and more frequent rain events with one low after another, earlier than first thought. HOWEVER, there are aspects which must be considered before fully writing off this summer. No, I’m not being a ‘dog with a bone’ on this one. I did call for a warmer, drier OVERALL August with a mixed pattern of warm/sunny and cool/wetter but right now, it may appear more cooler/wetter than warm/sunny.

This week and through the first half of August, it’s looking like the Atlantic low pressure train really ramps up and we have much more frequent rain events. Originally I had mid August onward turning much more settled. It’s looking likely that this more unsettled pattern lasts longer but I refuse to hand in the towel on this summer just yet and I explain why below.

Here’s the latest GFS ensemble 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies through the next 16 days.

NAO is turning more negative now which supports a longer duration unsettled.

For a look at the surface maps through this busy workweek of ‘active weather’, be sure to watch this morning’s video for detail.

As for the ‘Tropical Storm Bertha’ themed post and video yesterday, well her original circulation still looks to come our way but I was too fast. I made mention of this upcoming weekend, well it appears and is more plausible that the ‘ghost of Bertha’, IF it impacts the UK, would come NEXT WEEK and after all the mess of this week. She would simply reinforce and extend our unsettled pattern.

As for the pattern further out. I’m watching closely TWO potential recurving typhoons in the West Pacific. Back in early July we saw the ripple effects from Super Typhoon Neoguri which laid to a record cold shot into the Eastern US while as a result of that monster trough, we saw a monster ridge here over our side of the Atlantic.

The problem I have is that we’re a month on from that last cold/warm blast and since the atmosphere is starting to react differently to back then, I use caution when putting out a warm end to August outlook. Something worth watching out for and I will keep you posted on that scenario.

Here’s the two tracks from the JTWC for Nakri which is recurcing over Korea, the other, Halong which will take a run at Japan this week.

CFSv2 has backed off with cooler, wetter August.

See video for discussion.

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