As highlighted way back last week and indeed forecasted months ago, we are seeing the NAO head well into positive territory. This was clearly outlined and I strongly stated the importance of a reload period during November, right be winter begins.

As also expected, people are jumping all over this spike who are wishing for a warm winter. I have yet to see evidence to support this idea. On the other side of the coin, there are those who see nothing past cold and are panicking.

Put it this way, if I didn’t see this spike. I would be panicking myself. Why, because there would be an increased likelihood of a non eventful winter.

What’s frustrating is that there are one or two subscribers who don’t understand the value of this flip to positive. Aren’t getting the fact that the arctic needs to reload after a lengthy period of negative.

I urge you to starting reading these posts, there is a lot in these. If you have read them, re-read them as it’s all there. I have laid the evolution of this pattern out and stated the importance of a positive NAO during November.

As well as the reload idea, remember that I have also stated that where we see the greatest rain amounts compared to normal, this tends to be where the cold wants to go to during winter. This and the +NAO are two fundamentals that we need to see.

Without jumping too quick on this, the November pattern does appear to be shaping up exactly as expected and it makes me somewhat more comfortable about my idea for a rather cold period in December.

Remember back to 2009-10, the November that year was warm and very wet. Many that year didn’t see a winter coming and we all know what followed. I believe the same will happen this year. If your paying attention to what I am saying to you, then you’ll not be one that’s fooled by the warm and wet period.

Forgive me for appearing to slam other forecasters, but there are a few who are new to this, have little understanding and the evidence is there. A few who think this winter is going to be very cold also harped on about a cold and snowy October and November. By forecasting a cold autumn and winter, there is clearly a lack of understanding in the big picture. The SST’s are not being looked at nor is the El Nino. At best, the warm AMO is linked up to the theory that this increases blocking.

Weak El Nino years with a warm AMO and cold PDO do not favour cold Novembers and if there is a cold November then the chances are, there is no winter.

Also remember that although we have a positive NAO, we can still see cold and even snowy spells. Watch out on the backside of those passing lows. Cold is reload over Greenland and this can get entrained into passing lows. Not only providing fuel for intensification but a cold slap in the face as the low goes east…