>A DRAMATIC FEBRUARY AHEAD FOR THE USA AS NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION RETURNS!
Building Hudson Bay Vortex to be injected by super Siberian air via cross polar flow

CROSS POLAR FLOW AND STRATOSPHERIC WARMING

It’s looking more and more likely that a major weather month is ahead for the United States and perhaps the very worst this winter for combined snow & cold from the Plains to East Coast is likely in February. Several upper-atmospheric drivers are showing signs of major change with an alignment of upper winds that will usher into Canada and eventually the Plains and Eastern US an injection of super cold air (coldest anywhere outside of Antarctica) into the north and center of Canada. Arctic Canada is undoubtedly an already cold region but with the north Asian landmass three times larger than that of North America, air grows colder in the heart of Siberia than in Canada and when you get a cross polar flow and air from Siberia is driven over the pole and into North America, this is the very set up needed for the very coldest of air to hit the US.

The polar vortex rotating over north-central Canada is about to get an injection of even colder air from the pole-of-cold (Siberia) and this will make the Polar Vortex which will push over Hudson Bay and grow MUCH STRONGER thanks to Siberian help.

A direct discharge of Siberia air into the Plains will take place as the cross polar upper-air alignment will get channelled by ridging over the western US/Canada and the polar vortex, both pinwheeling the coldest air south straight down into the trough which thanks to the actual air mass being so cold will deepen pressures as the cold drains more and more into the bowl that is the trough, this trough will deepen over the next 10-14 day period.

A stratospheric warming event which is when the cold stratosphere warms and the cold in the upper atmopshere drops to lower levels as warming replaces the cold upper levels of the stratosphere. This transfer of thermal dyanamics within the atmosphere’s stratospheric layer will aid is driving the very coldest air available on earth southbound into Canada and the USA.

So, combine these two features and a locked down pattern with a mean trough maturing over the Lakes and into the entire eastern US, we’ve got a major cold period ahead for the eastern third of the nation.

EL NINO ENHANCED SOUTHERN JET STREAM

Another major player in not only a prolonged cold period which I believe has an embedded period which will display a record-breaking Arctic outbreak within the overall cold period which should last through most if not all of February, the very active El Nino storm cycle signifies the abiliby of the southern branch jet stream at this point in this winter season. We have seen California get ravaged by massive and extremely powerful storm systems and a jet stream about as strong as you’d ever see (pockets of winds recorded at 260 mph at 30-40,000ft over the Pacific). Much of the West has seen high elevation dumpings of major snows for the central and southern Rockies with 8-9 feet reported in the central and southern High Sierra, 90″ at Mammoth Lakes, Calif, when you have such cold ready to rule the eastern third in the next 7-10 day period we still have a very active southern storm track. The cold and storm system connection will unlease ferocious weather from the central to eastern US. A few potent and energetic weather systems will progress west to east and over the next 7-10 day period we shall see a storm track move from the southwest deserts to the northern plains-western lakes corridor and progress further south and east over this period where the core of cold will drive further and further south and east, eventually the storm track will ride the east coast, setting the stage for some major snowstorms. The jet stream over the Plains and east will set a perfect unstabilty to allow bombing out of storms that will bring remarkable and record-breaking snows, massive blowing and drifting through powerful and damaging winds and tornadic outbreaks in the southern side of these systems which may well bring record warmth northward ahead of these systems.

Behind each system that starts off riding the Texas to Lakes corridor will start to ride a Tennessee valley to New England corridor and eventually a Georgia to Cape Cod corridor with each of these in a series, cold air will grow more severe. I do see a wave of reinforcing Arctic air wrapping in behind each passing low pressure system.

Potentially, like we saw with the February of 2007 being one of the coldest ever for the Ohio Valley, this may well repeat itself only further east towards a corridor from the Mississippi-Tennessee Valleys up to central and Northern New England.

A record-breaking blizzard of 2003 may repeat in Feb 2010. Watch out for all-time record snows for the month or any month for Appalachain communities.

I predicted a sub zero event from DC to Boston and this is the set up that could do this.

If you wish for info on your particular area of the US, please email or write in the comment section below and I will happily reply.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark