>This blog post will continue to be updated throughout today and the weekend…
12 NOON UPDATE: According to Accuweather’s Raychel Harvey Jones, A windgust to 48 mph was reported in Hampshire along with blizzard-like conditions in many areas of the eastern and southeastern portions of England.
Over 200 motorists were stranded on motorways last night across the southeast…
As of 12 noon Glasgow is at 30 with a north breeze at 6 making it feel like 23 degrees. Snow showers are likely this afternoon as skies are becoming cloudier, 1-2 inches by tonight?
Here at the house it’s now 32 degrees feels like 26 with the odd flake of snow falling.
The Southwest of England is experiencing sustained winds of 21 mph and with air at 30 degrees, it feels like 17 in places such as Dunkeswell. Mumbles Head over the past hour has sat at 32 degrees with a sustained 30mph wind amking it feel like 17 degrees and with a gust to 39mph that wind felt like 15 degrees. or -8 to -9C.
*With 28 degree air and sustained northeast wind straight off the North Sea, it currently feels like 15 degrees right now at Scarborough, Yorkshire…
But the prize appears to go to the lofty village of Tomintoul, Aberdeenshire, high in the Cairngorm Nation Park where an air temp currently sits at 20 degrees (-6C) and with a N wind at 12, it feels like only 7 degrees or -14C… Some wind gusts may bring that number below zero or -18C.
Dover, Kent is 32 and sustained wind at 28 out of the east, feels like 18 degrees there while Ipswich, Suffolk is currently 25 with N wind at 6, feeling like 17 degrees. Kendal, Cumbria, currently 27, 8 mph wind, feels like 18 degrees.
4.30pm Update: WHERE IT HASN’T SNOWED, IT WILL THIS WEEKEND!
Though up here in Scotland we have escaped the worst of the winter weather as the east coast and southeast of England is getting hammered by the snow that is pushing in off the North Sea as a low spins over the English Channel and is rotating bands of heavy snow and strong winds in creating all kinds of problems from Yorkshire to Kent, we here WILL see accummulating snow probably starting tomorrow and will likely see further snow as a system drops down from the north Sunday.
How much?
Here is Mark Vogan’s accummulation forecast for both Sat and Sun.
Glasgow and Edinburgh City Centers: 1-2 inches, outlying areas may see locally 2-4 inches and higher ground such as Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Argyll and the Highlands, Fife, Lothian and Borders may see 4-6 inches with higher amounts where some more concentrated bands set up. Ski Resorts could well top a foot of snow with drifts of 2-4 feet closing roads. The A9 and Highland trunk roads may be forced to close.
Colder temperatures to come and what I would call REAL COLD?
I personally don’t rate this as Very Cold yet but if we get what I predicted a few months ago and Britain becomes largely snowcovered and an Arctic high drives across the country from Russia, we have a great chance at becoming very cold and much colder than what we are seeing right now…
How cold is very cold?
Glasgow, Edinburgh, Inverness, Aberdeen, Dumfries, Manchester, Birmingham, Oxford and surrounding towns that rim Greater London all seeing lows that take a run at -8C in town centers. Highs that can’t recover from those numbers to only peak at -4C or lower. Outlying rural areas, basically anywhere in the British Isles that is both away from warmth of urban areas and away from the coast to hit -10C or lower including here in Lennoxtown. Your classic cold spots such as the highland communities such of Braemar, Tulloch Bridge, Dalwhinnie, Aviemore, Altnaharra and the English cold spots of Shap, Cumbria, Benson Oxfordshire as well as the high moorland of Kent and up across the Yorkshire moors could potentially hit -15C or lower in some spots. The potential is certainly there and greater since the pattern we have now is perfect for such cold. But only if we see both national snowcover (with exception to perhaps immediate coastal areas) and an Arctic or Scandinavian high pressure cell dominate the UK weather map will we see this become reality. Cold numbers as low as these haven’t been achieved in many years but like stated in articles throughout this year, we are seeing the weak to moderate El Nino center it’s warm pool more towards the central Pacific, a cooler North Atlantic, very low solar cycle and an overall cooling down of the Northern Hemisphere. That is why I believe this COULD happen and this by the way may not be the only chance at seeing these types of numbers across Britain. Both January and February have a great chance at seeing a real cold snap. If we don’t get it next week, then I forecast it in January and February. What I don’t expect is a month or two month deep freeze, there will be milder times in between colder… Britain does not have the location or geography to hold onto long term cold like in central continental locations of North America, Europe and Asia…
3am Update:
It’s currently clear and 24 degree here at the house whilst it’s 23 in many areas around Glasgow and even down to Prestwick and down to Cairnryan. Later today we are likely to see some periods of moderate to heavy snowfall break out across our area. Forecast highs for today are only likely going to climb to around 32 degrees like it did yesterday here at the house and that was in fact December’s 2nd sub-freezing high.. I believe next week with produce several days that fail to hit the freezing mark with nights that could drop towards the mid-teens that could make for the coldest nights in many years around here.. Christmas Day could be a day which fails to crack 30 degrees!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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>I am really not sure about that far south Perry, That's a tough one… As you can read from my latest statements, I do expect basically the entire length of Britain white by Mon morning, nowhere that I can see is predicting severe cold next week but I am.. That set up atmospherically as well as a "white great britain" is the stage set to produce extreme cold as if the cold hits, the snow is going nowhere for a while, that would suggest a white christmas for much of the UK, as far actual snow falling christmas day, I really cant tell…
Thanks for your comment, keep me posted as to how cold you get, ok?
>Mark – found your Winter 09/10 forecast posted on 1 Nov from a link on WAWT about 2 days ago. If you are as close to being right about the rest of the season as you have been so far, I'll actually need the extra socks I'll inevitably get for Xmas! Woke up to 2" snow in Portsmouth and 2 very excited kids – will it snow Christmas they keep asking? Can you help?
>ouch, makes our cold look warm… photos would be great… hope your well and staying warm sir.
>Mark the temp here this morning is three degrees above zero.A little snow. I'll take some pictures I hope or if I can drag my old ass outside.