>The entire Northern Hemisphere is currently driven by a POSITIVE or possibly near neutral Arctic Oscillation and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation as we see a trough over the N.Atlantic and a zonal or ridging over the eastern US and Western Europe as cold air is bottled across the top of the world but because of this “bottling up” the Arctic is rapidly charging up and Asia is experiencing a hole in the expanding balloon over the Pole. When a POSITIVE AO AND NAO is present at this point in the year, the Arctic pressurizes the entire atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere and troughs deepen as by mid-November this cold air now getting into the mature -40 to -55 range must find the path of least resistence and at the moment, that is over Asia when it’s monster landmass and the coverage of snow is drawing the Arctic air down from the Pole.. At the same time Asia shivers in bone-chilling cold, most of Europe and North America where lesser snow coverage is, the jet stream tightens as the cold pushes down on the air that is still attempting to push from the equator towards the pole.. The Western North America-Europe continents are both experiencing storms off both Pacific and Atlantic as well as mild, maritime air. The USA is experiecing classic temps associated with a positive AO..

With -10s/-20s by day and -40s/-50s by night in an environment absent from warmth, sunlight and continuously expansive frozen snowfields, rivers and seas of the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of Alaska-Canada and Siberia along with -10s and -20s over the landlocked regions of Mongolia, northern China and Siberia this in my opinion enhances the Pacific Jet and the ability for warmth to be spread from California to New York, and helped by the mountainous downslope, compressional warming effect east of the major mountain chains of the USA.. Ahead of Pacific storms with last weeks warmth a prime example, we saw Mid-70s stretch into Montana, North Dakota and even the 70-degree mark topped I believe in southern Canada?

As for the lower 48 states, a strong Pacific flow is bringing warm air across the country west to east and sending highs towards 60 degrees as far north as the Minnesota-Ontario border yesterday. Minneapolis over recent days has enjoyed low to mid-60s whilst Chicago has enjoyed 70s and nights no cooler than the low 50s!

This warming effecting is enhanced indeed by strong Pacific low pressure circulations and their ability to pull warm air up from the tropical regions and then pull colder air from the north on the backside of the system.

As 60s roam the US-Canada border and the only cold air available is POLAR-MARITIME, 1,500 miles to the north in central Alaska and Northern Canada the real cooldown continues with 20s below zero (Arctic Village, AK: -29 degrees). The warmth over Mexico and the southern US combined with increasing cold over the pole is creating a larger margin for the earth’s ability to find equilibrium and therefore excellerating the jet stream that circles the hemisphere which creates a stronger push of warm air across the continental US. This energetic atmosphere at the mid-latitudes is also harnessing a greater potential for storm-creation and the intensity at which they can get to.

Eventually the rubber band in which warmth and cold is seperated will snap and cold will dive southwards into the very regions enjoying either an Indian summer or mild conditions. Even those places such as the United Kingdom and Western Europe that’s close to normal for the time of year will see major changes soon enough.

Coming Later. A detailed discussion with links to the major storm situation unfolding from the Deep South to New England where the remnants of Ida and an Atlantic hybrid system come together to create a Major Gale and Flood to the Mid-Atlantic USA!!

Stay close by…

Thanks for reading.

-Mark