United Kingdom & Ireland
There’s been a lot of hype of late about a cold second half to November for the UK. As stated in my recent winter forecast, this unlikely. More or less all parameters point to a firm WEST, SOUTHWEST Atlantic pattern for Northwest Europe and this could remain the case up until Christmas. Why? 1) While […]
The 2018-19 winter forecast is based on and factoring in all atmospheric/oceanic drivers currently in play. This year’s forecast will take into consideration the current ENSO index (El Nino Southern Oscillation), the global as well as Atlantic SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) profile, arctic sea ice extent and current status of the solar cycle. There […]
In what’s been a warm September and October across much of Europe. However, despite Poland experiencing it’s warmest September on record, a clear, cold end to the month drove temperatures to -7.9C in the Czarny Dunajec district. September temperature anomaly https://twitter.com/Ardo_94/status/1046338255887769605 October temperature anomaly In October and again after unusual warmth it was the UK’s turn […]
Halloween arrives on Wednesday this year and whether you’re out trick or treating Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, the overall theme turns from cool and settled to begin the week to milder and more showery midweek (Halloween itself) to potentially very wet and windy by the time we reach Friday evening. Once dark (typically by 5.15/5.30pm […]
This October will be remembered for it’s stormy spells and ups and downs in temperature with record heat (low 20s in northern Scotland, Scandinavia) and in the final week, possibly record cold! October is of course a transition month and it is often turbulent. It’s been a warm month throughout the continent. So, how cold do […]
An unusually strong Azores high will build then weaken and get shoved west late this week opening the door to the first true push of arctic air of the season over the UK. The mountains of Scotland, England and Wales could all see snow and perhaps to some ‘lower’ levels. Significant wind chills and a […]
The Eurasia snow cover is rather bleak this year. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1053061621411655680 This year is the polar opposite of 2016. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/796417042907856900 They say a big snow cover in October can enhance high latitude blocking during the winter providing southward incursions of polar air into the mid latitudes, particularly eastern North America and Europe. I’ve shown the below […]
After a pretty active first 20 days of October with flooding rains and named storms, the models are hinting at a colder pattern developing on both sides of the Atlantic to end October/begin November. A strong 1040mb Azores high is currently centred WSW of Ireland. This will feed most of the active weather over top […]
The week started soggy and will end soggy but in between, well it was more like summer again. When you get a stalled conveyor of subtropical moisture piling into windward upslopes of the West Highlands, you know flooding will be the result. For us here in the UK, these upper level rivers typically stall, running […]
As stated at the end of last week, the west Highlands would be under under the gun for a significant multiday rain event which continues this Monday evening. With a near stalled moisture plume connecting a hurricane and the sub tropics with Scotland, you know the totals will mount up. It’s not been one solid […]
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