After a pretty active first 20 days of October with flooding rains and named storms, the models are hinting at a colder pattern developing on both sides of the Atlantic to end October/begin November. A strong 1040mb Azores high is currently centred WSW of Ireland. This will feed most of the active weather over top of the UK into Scandinavia and central Europe.

As next week progresses both the AO/NAO appear to be heading negative.

This supports a westward retrograde of the Azores high and hook up of a Greenland/Alaska and Arctic ridge late next week and weekend.

The 7-day 2m temperature anomaly nicely reflects the upper air setup.

The above points to the arrival of the season’s first blast of arctic air with potential for snow, low temps both by day and night and significant wind chill.

This is hopefully a hint at what may be ahead later down the road. Our wet October, developing modoki El Nino, North Atlantic tripole and low solar is hopefully going to lead to a cold, snowy winter.

 

Tags: nao, north atlantic oscillation