United Kingdom & Ireland
A record strong and prolonged +NAO between May and August helped drive one of Europe’s hottest summer’s in the last 100 years while Greenland shivered it’s coldest since 1997. The cooling of the North Atlantic has almost certainly helped cool Greenland’s summers down and helped enhance this past summer’s deep Greenland trough and Europe ridge. […]
As we commence December and meteorological winter 18-19 tomorrow, the next surge of arctic air looks set to drill down the eastern side of North America early next week. This in turn will strengthen our predominantly zonal Atlantic jet thanks to the NAO going back neutral which means don’t expect an end to this wet, […]
Wind and rain is in firm control of our weather to end November and commence December. Lot’s of ‘cold talk’ of late and wishcasting but with the NAO going positive and polar vortex core leaning towards Greenland/Scandinavia, there’s no sign of anything other than an Atlantic pattern for NW Europe through the next 10 days […]
I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead. As […]
Up until mid November it had been a warm month with temps soaring to 18C as far north as Kinlochewe, Northwest Highlands. The 2nd half of the month turned seasonal to slightly below average as winds turned from southerly to easterly courtesy of the development of a powerful Scandinavian high. The colder flow wasn’t enough […]
I know I keep going on about this but I feel strong about this. There has been a great deal of hype and buying into individual ‘cold model runs’ lately. Do that was caution at this early stage, especially when the models see big cold blocking patterns but with little PV disruption. While there has […]
There’s no getting away from this. I didn’t see it coming this early. We’re potentially looking at the deepest negative AO/NAO for November since 2010 and this is rather ominous for so early. Low solar could be triggering this early blocking and could be an indicator of the level of winter ahead. A 2009-10 repeat […]
I have to admit that I’m struggling with the pattern and shifts over the next week or so. I’m very conflicted but here’s what I wrote in a post earlier today…. In the short 6-10 day range, cold spells are possible for the British Isles but when looking at the bigger picture and longer 2 […]
The last 10 days or so has seen a battle between Atlantic low pressure and continental high pressure. For the UK, particularly northern and western areas, they’ve succumbed to soggy low pressure but east and southeast parts have gradually been drying out as the strong continental high begins to back westwards. The next 7 days […]
A mild October ended with an exceptional cold spell for Europe, particularly for France and Spain thanks to a large and deep low drifting north out of the Med. https://twitter.com/TheNimbus/status/1056228234008895488 While not too much in the way of snow, the Irish capital recorded a low of -4.3C, Dublin’s coldest October low since 1939. For England […]
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