Summer 2015
May 2015 will be long remembered as the month that busted the Texas drought with parts of the Plains approaching 30 inches in 30 days. For some, as much as 12 inches within 24 hours causing devastating flash flooding. 1-day rainfall over Texas! Metro Houston is the latest culprit with 10-11 inches falling overnight. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] […]
Computer models continue to show the deepening of a low coming off Greenland this weekend that’s expected to present an unseasonably cool, wet and windy open to June. Here’s the morning of June 1 off the latest run of the GFS. Afternoon of June 1 [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] In this morning’s video I show the GFS example of […]
As we approach June the upper air pattern is showing signs of a shift into a more summer-like state. The persistent, anomalous upper trough/cold pool that’s hung over California and the Southwest for much of May appears to be shifting east into the saturated Southern Plains as feedback of wet ground and atmosphere begin to kick […]
In today’s video I show the 1972 example of similar (not exact by any means) SSTA’s with the horseshoe of cold in the Atlantic vs modestly warm Pacific with an El Nino coming on. Out of the last 30+ years, it appears 1972 is closest but the Pacific is very warm and the El Nino […]
May has been an incredibly wet, historic month for rainfall throughout the Southern, Central Plains while things are drying out in the East as well as the West Coast. Even here, a persistent upper low has kept the Southwest unusually cool and wet for the time of year. Like in Texas, the rainfall has been historic […]
May has turned out pretty much as expected back on April 23 with a cooler, wetter outcome than the March-April period with little real warmth to speak of. In fact I believe the warmest temperatures was 23/24C, short of the April maximum. Many days during May have been cooler than normal, breezy and showery with longer […]
So far so good with regards to my overall forecast for the summer. In case you’ve forgotten, it’s very near here and it doesn’t feel like it that’s for sure. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] It’s been a miserable open to the new working week for many but this ‘wetter pattern’ is now well established with soils recovering well following […]
While the ecmwf is unimpressive with the system, the GFS on the other hand suggests a potential full fledged tropical storm hitting South Carolina by Friday! Apparently NHC have scheduled a recon flight into this system Wed! More detail in tomorrow’s write-up & video! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
With waters abnormally warm by up to 5C off the US Gulf and Southeast coast, not only is this making for the warmest March and April on record on land, this could also favour early season development. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The warm water itself won’t lead to tropical cyclone development but the pattern we’re entering could […]
The unusual deep, cold upper vortex drifting down over the Great Lakes bringing an abnormal chill from the Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic may not be a short lived blip but part of a pattern that lingers. For the first time since last year, the NAO is tanking and that means a twin trough under Greenland […]
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