Summer 2015
As you well know, July commenced record hot across much of Western Europe but since the 5th, we’ve returned to the pattern we’ve had all along and that’s an ‘Atlantic westerly’. Here was the departures from normal across the continent yesterday. Month-to-date Sure, it’s still very warm, however the departures are being chipped away at […]
In today’s post I wanted to take a first look at autumn and also discuss more winter thoughts too. Here’s a look at the Jamstec for autumn and winter. The Jamstec is going with a ‘wettish’ autumn but dry winter. Sep-Nov Dec-Feb It’s looking very dry throughout the period for the western mainland of Europe. […]
It’s been a very warm start to 2015 for the Western US with 8 states recording their warmest opening to any 6 months in history. As previously stated, this can be blamed on one major factor. The ABNORMALLY warm water extending from the equator (& beyond) up to shores of Alaska. Because of that warm water, especially […]
A few folks have came up to me in recent times and said how terrible this summer’s been. I would disagree with that for the simple fact that I remember washout June’s and July’s. This year is no washout. Those were the terrible ones. At least we’re getting the sun, warmth (at times) and then […]
Late last week we saw temperatures soar towards 115F in the Northern Sacramento Valley beneath a 594dm ridge. We now have an unusually deep trough overhead and we’re literally seeing the opposite, instead of 10-15 above average it’s now 10-15 below average with rare July rain, hail and yes even snow! This is not something you see every […]
Within the first 10 days of July, we’ve went from the hottest July day on record last week to at least 3 locations experiencing their coldest July night on record. Katesbridge, Co Down woke to a frosty 0.3C, Strathallan, Perthshire 2.3C and Gogarbank (Edinburgh Airport) 3.7C all set new cold records for July. Scotland last Wednesday… This morning… Strathallan, Gogarbank and […]
This years El Nino is a big deal and greatest since 1998. It appears to be going for ‘super’ status. With an atmospheric ENSO index reaching +3 sigma, we’re seeing the greatest ENSO July amplification since 1948 according to WSI Energy. This MJO in response is something else and we can see the response in the tropical […]
Based on all the information presented to me at this time, the upcoming winter 2015-16 probably has the greatest level of uncertainty. El Ninos, like other big drivers are not created equally. Our warmest and cold winters have occurred during El Nino years. i.e, 2009-10 which was a moderate event and brought the UK’s coldest […]
The super strong MJO crossing the Pacific Ocean has the ‘conga line’ of topical trouble steaming westward full throttle. The first two systems threaten China with the second (Chan hom) potentially a major hit near Shanghai. The powerful MJO is likely down to the extremely warm waters covering a large part of the Pacific at the moment. The […]
What a difference a week makes and a south wind right? Last week saw UK temperatures reach a Mediterranean 25-36C. Areas across Scotland such as Aviemore topped out at 29C. This is what’s coming this Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a completely opposite wind direction… NORTHERLY! Frost Thursday morning? Here’s the GFS surface temps. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Yes, a rare July frost […]
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