Based on all the information presented to me at this time, the upcoming winter 2015-16 probably has the greatest level of uncertainty. El Ninos, like other big drivers are not created equally. Our warmest and cold winters have occurred during El Nino years. i.e, 2009-10 which was a moderate event and brought the UK’s coldest winter since 1978-79. In 1997-98 we experienced a super El Nino and one of our warmest winters.

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The cold AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is a major thorn in my side because 1997-98 was a warm winter during a strong to super El Nino, similar to 2015 (to date), however the Atlantic was warm back then whereas it’s cold this year. Exactly what difference will that make to the Atlantic-Europe atmosphere remains to be seen.

As for the downward trend in solar cycle 24, well it’s heading for ‘inbetween’ territory. Those years vary considerably.

Here’s the current SSTA’s. Note the warming of water extending from the central, subtropical Atlantic up into and surrounding the UK following the heat wave.

Here was the SSTA from back at the beginning of December 1997.

Note the strength of El Nino and the warmth across the North Atlantic compared to this year!

One could argue that if the current SSTA profile was present during the winter months, this would favour an Atlantic trough/Azores to UK ridge, hence a warm winter.

Projected SSTA’s for the upcoming winter.

CFSv2

Interestingly the CFSv2 does show a similar water temp profile during the upcoming Dec-Feb period and also has it warmer-than-normal as a consequence.

CFSv2 500mb height anomalies.

Dec

Jan

Feb

2 metre temp anomalies

Dec

Jan

Feb

Please bare with me winter weather lovers, I am one of them and not calling the ‘warm winter’ card yet. Only showing you the reality of the situation at this early stage. One positive aspect worth considering. That colder than normal water may be our saving grace as system crossing the Atlantic may contain more cold than otherwise, had waters been warmer-than-normal and so I don’t believe it’s a non-winter, perhaps similar to last year. Lot’s of other aspects and drivers including the QBO, solar… to throw into the equation.

Also, if that warm water persists through the second half of summer, expect a rainy end to the summer and autumn. CFSv2 sees it coming!

The Jamstec has a further west El Nino warm pool (modoki) not too dissimilar to 2009 but the key difference is the cold North Atlantic. It’s colder than the CFSv2 around the UK.

However notice this model has it cold not warm over Ireland, UK and west/central Europe. Colder Atlantic supporting colder Atlantic lows?

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