This years El Nino is a big deal and greatest since 1998. It appears to be going for ‘super’ status. With an atmospheric ENSO index reaching +3 sigma, we’re seeing the greatest ENSO July amplification since 1948 according to WSI Energy.

This MJO in response is something else and we can see the response in the tropical west Pacific.

As pointed out by Michael Ventrice (WSI Energy), the current MJO in the PACIFIC has also opened up a westerly wind duct in the tropical Atlantic. That’s pretty rare indeed.

According to the RMM, this is one of the strongest MJO’s on record and it usually occurs during strong to super El Ninos.

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As for the United States, July’s opening week has gotten off to a toasty, record breaking start over the Pacific Northwest but rather cool further east.

Interestingly the reduction in heights over the Southwest in the last 36 hours helped spawn thunderstorms which produced flash flooding yesterday across Las Vegas. Check out this stunning image captured from a plane yesterday. Image courtesy of Dave Hegwald.

Here was the result on the ground. Photos via BBC Weather.

It’s been pouring further east over Texas too. Abilene started the month bone-dry but within just 24 hours, they received their greatest single day rain in history.

As a result of the wet spring, it’s been kinda cool this year across Texas but it may be about to heat up.

By late week, Houston may finally get their first 95+ of the year, about a month late.

Looking ahead, it appears the negative holds over the Southwest and therefore temps should remain cooler with a continued risk of further flooding thunderstorms. A trough also lingers over the Northeast while ridging resides over the central US.

GFS ensemble

Due to the amount of water in the ground, beneath the ridge core, surface temps are likely to be restricted and thus we should remain in a fairly cool pattern nationally.

The GFS ensemble keeps it warmer than normal in the West as well as Southeast and that’s possible due to dry ground which the air heats above much quicker and easier. (less evaporation needed)

See video for the discussion.

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Tags: el nino 2015, las vegas flooding, madden julian oscillation, mjo