Within the first 10 days of July, we’ve went from the hottest July day on record last week to at least 3 locations experiencing their coldest July night on record.

Katesbridge, Co Down woke to a frosty 0.3C, Strathallan, Perthshire 2.3C and Gogarbank (Edinburgh Airport) 3.7C all set new cold records for July.

Scotland last Wednesday…

This morning…

Strathallan, Gogarbank and Katesbridge all recorded their coldest on record surpassing records set in 1994, 2000 and 2004 respectively. However, these are not near the Northern Ireland or UK records for July. For Northern Ireland, the record goes to Lislap Forest, Co Tyrone with -1.1C set in 1971, the UK record goes to both St Harmon, Powys and Lagganlia, Inverness-shire with -2.5C set in 1986 and 1977.

Interestingly, Strathallan, Perthshire is hosting it’s very first T-in-the-Park and no doubt some of the equipment probably had frost covering it this morning.

When it comes to these wild swings in air temperature and feel, it’s all about wind direction as well as moisture content within the atmosphere. Last week it was coming from a hot Sahara and with the warmth came subtropical humidity which holds the heat by night, this week it’s coming from the arctic and despite the very short nights and no complete darkness on the northern horizon, a cool daytime base, dry (arctic) air and light wind is suffient to cool the lower atmosphere efficiently.

While highs last week even up here in Scotland got close to 30C, yesterday saw highs cooler than last week’s night time lows. Cairngorm Summit late afternoon yesterday was stuck at 4C with a wind chill of 1C. I drove up the A9 yesterday and the dash read 10C. That’s cold for late afternoon in July!

Check out the contrast between the Scottish Highlands and south of Spain yesterday!

From Coldest July morning in parts of UK To Warmest in Canaries?

While it was record cold for parts of the UK, this morning was remarkably warm down in the Canaries and Spain where heat wave conditions continue to rule. Las Palmas, Gran Canaria recorded a minimum of 29.1C this morning while on the Spanish mainland, Seville only dipped to 28C.

According to a reliable source, the 29C at Las Palmas this morning is nowhere near the all-time low maximum for the Canaries. That’s an incredible 39.1C. Date it was set is unknown at this time.

Summer’s first month opened cooler-than-normal.

July’s first week has gotten off to a very warm start.

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However, a cool pattern now re-established through July 2nd week means those high positive departures will get chipped away. The question is do we see enough cool to make this an average or below average month like June?

CFSv2 monthly shows, like June, a cool north, warm south of Europe for July!

August too looks cool.

Looking ahead and it looks like the Atlantic is much more of a player through the next 2-3 weeks. But, with high pressure remains strong over Spain supporting 40C+ each day over the south. This heat is frequently extending north up through France and though yesterday was cool at just 17-20C as far south as Paris, it’s warmer today and even warmer tomorrow with SE England returning to the UPPER 20s.

It’s southern and central ENGLAND and WALES that should see plenty of decent warm sunshine as we progress through July with periodic interuptions but I’m afraid for Northern Ireland and Scotland it’s a much more changeable prospect with frequent fronts sweeping in bringing cloud, wind and rain and with that comes fresher air.

Through the next 15 day period. The GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2 metre temperatures/anomalies firmly have the UK, Denmark and Scandinavia below normal and warmer than normal across Iberia and the Med.

The EPS control is very similar to the above GFS ens. UK eastwards and north is well below normal next 15 days.

It’s an increasingly wetter pattern for the NW UK into Scandinavia too.

The CFSv2 has July extremely dry from across Southern Europe extending into the Southern UK. August too it shows as being a dry month.

Interestingly, despite the surge of historic heat late June/early July, it would appear the LONGER TERM upper air and temperature pattern is sticking to the script and following the sea surface temp anomaly and where the ground is wet and dry…

However waters surrounding the UK have warmed due to the recent hot weather, could this change the late summer upper dynamics, possibly resulting in a wetter end game??

See video for today’s discussion.

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