Seasonal Forecasts
When looking at the 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies off the models, there is one aspect which really sticks out. The warm water of the eastern Pacific has differing influence on the atmosphere depending upon latitude. The El Nino and dramatic warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific is already significantly influencing the US atmospheric pattern but our old friend, the […]
While April was drier than expected, the May pattern appears to be behaving as forecast with a much cooler and more unsettled regime with the Atlantic being the primary driver. Unlike Feb-Mar-Apr where a blocking high was dominant, that stone is gone and the atmosphere is much more free flowing and bringing up the rain deficits […]
As Jen Carfagno of The Weather Channel correctly states, this is NOT your typical May surface chart! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] All within 12 hours… heavy, windblown snow from Denver to Cheyenne across to Rapid City, severe and tornadic thunderstorms for the Central and Southern Plains to a landfalling Tropical Storm Ana near Myrtle Beach, SC. The […]
Under clear skies, light wind and within a cool/ry air mass, temperatures have tumbled to pretty chilly levels by mid May standards in recent nights. But -5 or even -6 isn’t as unusual as you’d think. This morning… -4 Kinbrace / Friday morning… -5.3C at Braemar [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Sure, there’s been times of chill and frost this month but it’s nothing […]
Within 24 hours, the US landmass will have experienced major snowfall (Rockies/High Plains), severe weather including tornadoes and flash flooding on the Central/Southern Plains as well as a landfalling Tropical Cyclone (Ana) in the Carolinas. As AccuWeather’s Jesse Ferrell points out, this may be a first. Ana is now a fully tropical, 60 mph storm and […]
NHC has declared Tropical Storm Ana off the Carolina coast. This system is expected to drift towards the coast through the weekend with biggest impacts being coastal gales, flooding rainfall and beach erosion. As of the 5am advisory, Ana is a 1004mb, 45 mph subtropical storm. Ana is in no hurry, moving at only 1 […]
After a cold start to Friday with temps down to -4, possibly -5 in Highland Scotland, it’s another day of bright or sunny spells mixed with cloud. However, a band of rain will spread across Wales and the central swathe of England from off the Irish Sea today and this will shape the first half of the weekend. Dry to the north […]
What Will Drive The US Winter Of 2015-16… El Nino Or Gulf Of Alaska Warm Pool For 3rd Straight Year?
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the 2015-16 US winter, while some will scream warm based on the El Nino, other sources have it pegged as another big one for snow and cold in the East. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] I remain on the fence because IF and it’s a big if, the warmest waters of […]
This predominantly wet, unsettled pattern remains firmly in control but following another soggy Saturday (dry Sunday) and potentially Monday for mainly Scotland, with low pressure positioned to the west and ridging to the ESE into Monday-Tuesday, this setup provides the year’s second summer into the UK. However, the true warm day appears to be a mere 24 hour […]
The hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the system gathering steam over the Bahamas today to see what’s going on. NHC has this system at a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours or 40% over the next 5 days. Visible satellite view yesterday evening shows this system gaining some organisation as […]
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