Under clear skies, light wind and within a cool/ry air mass, temperatures have tumbled to pretty chilly levels by mid May standards in recent nights. But -5 or even -6 isn’t as unusual as you’d think.

This morning… -4 Kinbrace / Friday morning… -5.3C at Braemar

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Sure, there’s been times of chill and frost this month but it’s nothing we haven’t had before. Take 3 separate mornings back in 1941 and on the 4th, 11th and 15th, temperatures fell to -9.4C. Interestingly, 2 of those readings were recorded at Lynford, Norfolk while the other was Fort Augustus, Highland.

The -8.1 recorded late last month in Northern Ireland was somewhat more impressive because it is highly likely to be NI’s coldest for so late in the season. There was a colder -8.5 set back on April 10th 1998 which remains the coldest April low in the NI record books but it was set 10 days earlier in the month and with only .4C off the record, being 10 days later, last months -8.1C will likely go down as NI’s coldest for so late as the May record is only -6.5 set on May 7th 1982.

Coming Days, Not As Warm As Previously Thought…

While it shall remain cool and damp across Northern Ireland and Scotland, the warmth is building over the SOUTHERN UK with the presence of a southbound front and excelleration of SSW winds in a warming air mass coupled with sunshine.

The much anticipated temporary, pre-frontal warm-up appears to be even shorter lived than initially thought. As you know, we saw temps rise close to 26C in Southeast England last month and that was the UK’s warmest April reading since 2011. We’re likely to see 24C around London or up into East Anglia tomorrow but originally, models took temps up towards 26 or 27C Tuesday but this won’t be the case now with winds more WSW with more mixed skies and a chance of showers.

Even it temps had of soared into the 26 or 27C range, it was never going to challenge the UK May record for warmth like the chill has for some because back in 1949, Camden Square, London topped 29.4C.

The warmth is not just confined to the southern British Isles but across Western Europe.

Monday PM highs

Tuesday PM (old run from last Thursday)

New run

Like we saw with the first warm spell last month, there should be a sizable, though not quite as large Northwest to Southeast contrast. More like 12 vs 26C rather than 8 vs 25C. Quite often, more so at this time of year as well, when temps manage to reach the mid or upper 20s, Scotland and Northern Ireland is often beneath cloud and rain because the heating further south is often achieved by winds blowing along and ahead of an approaching front, combined with sunshine rather than beneath a stable, non-windy high pressure cell.

Late week

We remain locked in a fairly fluid Atlantic pattern in which low pressure remains the rule through at least the next 10 days. Some fairly decent rainfall is and will affect WNW parts of the UK while warmth builds to the south of the boundary but by Wednesday-Thursday, brief ridging gives way to the next Atlantic system. This warm-up is a 2, at most 3 day affair simply because of the positioning of low vs high pressure but our upper atmosphere is moving things along and so the rain and cool is never far away.

Here’s a look at the latest run of the GFS/ECMWF (below) for the coming week. Notice there’s plenty of cooler, wet and windy following the Monday-Tuesday warming trend. The newer model runs do show ridging Wednesday but the next low swings in Thursday.

ECMWF

Fair amount of rain taking aim at the West Highlands and Alps this next 7 days.

Will have a video tomorrow.

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