This predominantly wet, unsettled pattern remains firmly in control but following another soggy Saturday (dry Sunday) and potentially Monday for mainly Scotland, with low pressure positioned to the west and ridging to the ESE into Monday-Tuesday, this setup provides the year’s second summer into the UK. However, the true warm day appears to be a mere 24 hour affair.

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Unfortunately that low west of Ireland drifts in on this highly ‘Atlantic’ pattern mid week bringing an abrupt end to the warmth and sun and we’re back to wind, rain and cooler temps.

Both GFS and ECMWF surface agree with the scenario from this weekend through mid next week.

GFS

ECMWF

How warm might it get? We’re looking at a potential 26C somewhere across the South of England, widely 21-23C.

GFS 2m temps at 12z Tue.

ECMWF 2m temps at 12z Tue.

Looks like Scotland get’s warm but it’s a little unknown how much sun we’ll get up here. With sun, we should push 21.

As previously stated, this cool, wet theme is here to stay for the foreseeable future I’m afraid and the models tend to agree.

GFS operational 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

GFS ensemble.

See video for today’s discussion.

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