Seasonal Forecasts
So far so good with regards to my overall forecast for the summer. In case you’ve forgotten, it’s very near here and it doesn’t feel like it that’s for sure. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] It’s been a miserable open to the new working week for many but this ‘wetter pattern’ is now well established with soils recovering well following […]
This focus in recent days has been the severe weather and drought busting rains on the Southern/Central Plains as well as the summer warmth in the Midwest/East. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] However, change is on the way as we progress through this week as an unusually cool Canadian high descends over the Great Lakes and eventually covers the Eastern US […]
Little change in overall thinking, May looks likely to go out on a cool and continued unsettled theme and I expect this to take us into June with a cool, disappointing open to summer 2015. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The Icelandic high (opposite of winter) shall rule at least the next 7 days or longer keeping the UK and western […]
Our current pattern remains very zonal (westerly) with a distinct north-south divide with cool, blustery showers over Northern Ireland/Scotland whiles always drier, brighter and warmer the further south you go. However change is on the way. That change will be in the form of ‘direction in which our Atlantic lows come in from’. Unfortunately we’re not going […]
While LA and San Diego have both dealt with record rainfall over the last 36 hours, it’s back to winter in the surrounding mountains, all thanks to an unusually late Alaska origin low which has swept directly over Southern California. Parts of San Diego were under water last night having recorded a 1.63 inches of rain. That’s the greatest […]
In yesterday’s post I touched on the chilly winds blowing over the UK with the added kick due to a rather cold (1-3C below normal) North Atlantic. I also briefly touched on the prospects of a turn to much colder next week. This looks legit and could support some unusually low daytime temps (5-12C) as a deep trough settles […]
The anomalous Southwest upper trough continues to support cool temps and unseasonable precipitation across California and the Desert Southwest but this will join forces with storm and rain cooled air over the Plains. Eventually, towards the 7-10 day period, cooler than normal air should return to the East where summer warmth has had temps near 90 from DC […]
While it’s all about the warming in the eastern Pacific, it’s quite the opposite to our west over the North Atlantic. With a mean upper flow pattern blowing west-east off a colder-than-normal North Atlantic means unusually cool winds for mid May across Ireland, UK and into the western mainland of Europe. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The initial 5-day mean off […]
The 2015 El Nino is likely to become the biggest ‘global weather story’ in quite some time with major impacts heading for the United States drought area. This is likely to have US and global implication and could significantly dent the multi-year drought in California. Could it wipe it out through fall and winter? It would […]
This just shows you how poor the CFSv2 guidance can be. We half way through May and here’s the last 3 runs. May has went from dry in N UK/wet Iberia to the complete opposite and June has went from dry to wet. I takes to know your weather and climatic drivers. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] June’s flipped from wet […]
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