This just shows you how poor the CFSv2 guidance can be.

We half way through May and here’s the last 3 runs. May has went from dry in N UK/wet Iberia to the complete opposite and June has went from dry to wet. I takes to know your weather and climatic drivers.

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June’s flipped from wet to dry. I believe it, like May should turn out wetter than normal.

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According to research scientists, out of all the continents, Europe is least affected by El Nino. However, like everything, not all El Nino’s are the same. Some are weak, some are strong or like in the 97-98 case, very strong. Some are central Pacific basin, some are eastern and depending upon position and strength of warm pool, effects are different. That injection of heat into the atmosphere creates a ripple effect and I believe we do see influence here but in a more indirect way.

Take the 1997-98 winter for example. It was the 2nd warmest for the UK on record and it was the warmest February on record with temps soaring to an unprecedented 17C in January, 20C in February.

However, a moderate El Nino during a solar minimum (2009) can produce one of the coldest winters. Like I say, each episode is different when all the variables are thrown in.

This years El Nino is now showing similarity to the 1997-98 episode.

Current global SSTA’s show a very warm PDO/cold AMO signal.

Here was this time back in 1998.

Notice how the North Pacific was colder while the North Atlantic was very warm. Opposite now.

Certainly in more recent El Nino events, it appears we end winter and begin spring abnormally dry with a turn to wetter than normal late spring into summer when there’s a strengthening ENSO event, we’ve seen this in 2009, 2012 and now and that’s why I have the summer I have.

This El Nino appears to be well on it’s way to becoming potentially the strongest since the Super El Nino of 97-98. Sometimes the West of Europe dries out during the 2nd half of summer. While it wasn’t a particularly strong event, the Nino of 2003 was present during the UK’s warmest spell of weather in recorded history. It was also present in a similar way just last summer when we had a spell of warm and dry and in fact the warmest weather since 2006 in Glasgow which was another El Nino year may I add but these were WEAK EL NINOS.

What I’m not sure about is whether we do truly see ‘varying’ differences here depending upon strength of the ENSO event and also whether it’s true presence is felt during the winter months in a similar way to the United States. Weak central Pacific El Ninos can harness colder weather for both the US and Europe when other factors are in play but a strong event like 97-98 is more likely to provide a milder, wetter winter, especially when the North Atlantic is colder than normal.

I believe our El Nino influence comes from a downwind reshape of the upper atmosphere. For example the altered upper pattern across North or South America which in turn has an indirect, butter effect downwind with shifting upper ridge/trough positions etc rather than direct influence.

Here are the expected weather types during a typical El Nino. Notice Europe isn’t recognised is regions impacted.

I shall be looking more at this and past El Nino’s in the coming weeks and months as this is going to become a headline maker… Stay tuned!

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As for the next few days….

Next low pushes across Ireland and the southern UK Thursday bringing a spell of wind and rain. Looks dry across Northern Ireland/Scotland.

Then focus of unsettled shifts back to the north with an Icelandic low bringing strong winds, rain and showers across Northern Ireland and the northern UK late Friday into Saturday.

Chilly NW flow follows.

GFS has next low arriving Monday and so the Atlantic parade continues!

GFS ensemble 10-day NAO projection certainly supports the continued westerly or zonal Atlantic-Europe pattern.

Unfortunately there will be no Europe video today. I’ve been on the road since 5am and won’t be home till 9. This was written away from home.

FULL update will be available tomorrow morning!

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Tags: climate, el nino, el nino europe, ENSO