In yesterday’s post I touched on the chilly winds blowing over the UK with the added kick due to a rather cold (1-3C below normal) North Atlantic. I also briefly touched on the prospects of a turn to much colder next week. This looks legit and could support some unusually low daytime temps (5-12C) as a deep trough settles over the UK and Western Europe in response to rising heights over the North Atlantic and Greenland. Expect a cold rain to low levels but snow to the hills at times.

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Water Temps Playing Big Role In Unusual Cool & Warmth

Before we get into the detail of next week, heat has been dramatically building over Iberia in recent days and yesterday, the thermometer soared to an all-time May record of 41C at Seville in the far south.

The Canary Islands also experienced the hottest weather ever recorded for the month of May yesterday! Lanzarote Airport hit 42.4C yesterday which was a fraction off the all-time record of 42.9C set back in July 2004.

You can see why in the below SSTA chart) why the UK is experiencing sub par temps while Spain endures heat wave and mid summer conditions. Our winds are blowing straight off that colder than normal North Atlantic, notice how Iberia is surrounded by warmer than normal waters!

It’s not just the warmer than normal Atlantic and Med that’s fuelling the strong upper ridge and record heat but the much larger and higher concentration of Saharan dust circling the high. This has a tendency to dry out the atmosphere and therefore it heats more.

Looking Cold Next Week Compared To Normal

GFS ensemble sees the NAO falling into negative territory. This looks like a disappointing 2nd half to May and may well feel more like March again especially with the chill in any breeze.

This is a classic negative NAO setup with nice cross Atlantic teleconnection.

That’s an impressive 5-day mean trough depth given time of year.

Proper late May warmth will be very hard to come by with this pattern! We’re heading into a solidly colder than normal pattern.

ECMWF snow over the next 7 days.

ECMWF surface maps are equally as impressive as the upper 500mb anomaly. Unusually chilly late May wind is looking likely next week along with potential of sleet mixing to relatively low levels can’t be ruled out.

As well as seeing the return of hill snow, high pressure within this unseasonably cool air mass may support some of the coldest late May nights in several years too.

See this afternoon’s video for more.

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