The 2015 El Nino is likely to become the biggest ‘global weather story’ in quite some time with major impacts heading for the United States drought area. This is likely to have US and global implication and could significantly dent the multi-year drought in California. Could it wipe it out through fall and winter? It would take a lot but strong El Nino’s do tend to be big rain producers and the very fact we’re still seeing it wanting to rain as far down as Los Angeles and San Diego in mid May could be a sign of bigger things to come later.

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We’re already seeing the drought coming to an end out in the Plains where given the right atmospheric setup, it does like to rain a lot here through spring and summer (and stay dry also) as shown in last night’s write-up.

Check out the similarity to May 11/12, 1997 and 1998 vs 2015.

Not as strong as 97 or 98 but it’s getting there and waters are now +2.3C above normal in Nino region 1+2, the highest value since June 1998.

According to the models, that SW trough with rainfall continues to hold over California and the Southwest all the way through the end of May.

More snow for the Rockies? Some pretty deep systems for the time of year are going to roll through this typically arid and warming region in the next 10 days.

Check out the GFS surface which shows all the active weather streaming in off the Pacific. Expect more significant severe weather with this pattern.

Further drought busting rains for Texas, Oklahoma north and westward and how often do you see the QPF printing out 0.50-1.00 inch of rain for the Los Angeles-San Diego area in mid May?

More tomorrow but be sure to watch today’s video for the discussion.

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Tags: california drought, el nino, ENSO, southern oscillation index