Little change in overall thinking, May looks likely to go out on a cool and continued unsettled theme and I expect this to take us into June with a cool, disappointing open to summer 2015.

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The Icelandic high (opposite of winter) shall rule at least the next 7 days or longer keeping the UK and western mainland of Europe under a chilly, ‘jackets needed’ northwesterly. It shall remain decidedly chilly for the time of year, especially over the often windier, more showery Northern UK and Ireland.

The presence of low pressure will keep us rather unsettled as well as cool with a series of fronts crossing over this upcoming workweek. These will provide spells of persistent rain, followed by heavy, blustery showers which may pack hail, thunder and lightning.

Snow likely on the hills.

As mentioned yesterday, the air at 850mb will be at or close to 0C and with strong surface warming at this time of year, that’s a recipe for torrential downpours, we saw that yesterday, more today, especially across Northern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England where winds will be fresh to strong from a westerly direction. Less windy (though still breezy) across Wales, Midlands and Southern England where temps will be warmest at 15-19C, closer to 12C further north but feeling cold in the wind that’s blowing off an unusually cold North Atlantic. This is very much a one month behind type pattern.

It’s that time of year and pattern where we talk CAPE or measure of lift and instability within the lower/mid atmosphere and it certainly will increase early this work week.

The below GFS meteograms day 1-8 show this cool, unsettled pattern nicely.

Plot for the central Highlands, note the highs and lows!! Plenty of breeze and precip too!

The model also sees snow for this plot!

SOUTH-CENTRAL ENGLAND

Note the temps, nothing above 16C! Sure, underdone some but there’s no real sign of 21+ even in the Southeast for some time.

Even for Paris (below), highs are restricted to 21C at best but look at where the model takes the night lows, 4C in late May??? Must say, this plot may be for somewhere OUTSIDE of the city proper where days and nights are cooler but even still.

BTW, this was the scene in Northern Sweden this morning. Bare in mind that nights are probably never completely dark here now!

A new Europe video will be available again tomorrow.

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