After a cold start to Friday with temps down to -4, possibly -5 in Highland Scotland, it’s another day of bright or sunny spells mixed with cloud. However, a band of rain will spread across Wales and the central swathe of England from off the Irish Sea today and this will shape the first half of the weekend. Dry to the north over central and northern Scotland and also across the South of England.

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Once this low kicks out into the N Sea later Saturday, it’s another clear and calm overnight with potentially another frosty start for some Sunday morning thanks to the influence of high pressure once again.

During Sunday, high pressure builds over the near continent while a large low approaches the Northwest of Scotland and during Monday while cloud, rain and winds pick up over Western Scotland and back across N Ireland/Ireland, sunshine and warmth builds over eastern England with highs Monday expected to top 23 or 24C in the Southeast.

Into Tuesday as the front sinks south, it’s looks rather cloudy and damp in the North but from the Midlands southward, it’s all about summer warmth once again as sunshine and southerly winds lift surface temps high widely into the low 20s. A few spots in and around London could see 26, maybe 27C.

HOWEVER, this warmth is kicked into the continent come Wednesday or Thursday (timing uncertain) as low pressure regains control of UK air space during the second half of next week.

Here’s how the latest GFS surface is looking Saturday through next Saturday.

ECMWF

Remember how the CFSv2 was quick to rebuild the ridge over Western Europe, well as expected it’s delaying this more and more with a solid trough through to late May now.

Notice in the below 7 and 30 day precipitation anomaly charts how rainfall is recovering nicely into ABOVE NORMAL territory once again.

Last 7 days

Last 30 days

This is in the shadow of a dry last 90 days.

Upcoming 7 days.

See today’s video for the discussion.

Next update will be Sunday.

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