There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the 2015-16 US winter, while some will scream warm based on the El Nino, other sources have it pegged as another big one for snow and cold in the East.

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I remain on the fence because IF and it’s a big if, the warmest waters of this strengthening El Nino hold nearest the South America coast, then a ridge and warmth is most likely over much of the Lower 48 in my opinion.

However, some modelling including the Jamstec (below) suggest that the warmest waters stay out over Nino 1.2 rather than 3.4 which is more of a moderate but modoki or central Pacific based El Nino. This would support ridging but further west.

If CFSv2 is remotely correct…

then the El Nino is strong with warmest water up against South America, with this you can kiss winter 2015-16 good bye in the East!

A major factor which must be considered regardless of the equatorial Pacific and that is the warm pool which remains well north up in the Gulf of Alaska. Afterall it’s that which has ruled the US winter for the past 2 straight years. Does it rule a 3rd and perhaps final winter?

Ok, say for arguments sake we get a strong in close to SA El Nino come December 2015, what wins out in terms of the primary driver to the US winter? The El Nino which is strong and nearest the coast of SA or the Gulf of Alaska induced ridge supporting that Eastern trough again?

Be sure to check out yesterday’s Europe write-up which links recent high and low sunspot activity with ocean response.

Notice the cold N Pac/warm N Atl around the solar min/pre max years driving mixed US winters along with warmer/drier summers.

Flip arrives around solar max with warm N Pac/colder N Atl driving colder eastern US winters and cooler/wetter summers.

North Pacific Warm Pool Likely To Cooling Following El Nino

I suspect that AFTER this El Nino episode is done (typically occurs following a solar max) we’ll see a sharp cooling of the North Pacific and a flip back to a cold PDO. In turn, winters will be more varied with other drivers other than that warm pool playing bigger driving roles. That anomalous warm pool has been arguably the ultimate driving in the last 2 big winters.

Check out this morning’s video for the latest on the SE system and potential heavy snow in the Rockies.

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