Seasonal Forecasts
Late last week we saw temperatures soar towards 115F in the Northern Sacramento Valley beneath a 594dm ridge. We now have an unusually deep trough overhead and we’re literally seeing the opposite, instead of 10-15 above average it’s now 10-15 below average with rare July rain, hail and yes even snow! This is not something you see every […]
Within the first 10 days of July, we’ve went from the hottest July day on record last week to at least 3 locations experiencing their coldest July night on record. Katesbridge, Co Down woke to a frosty 0.3C, Strathallan, Perthshire 2.3C and Gogarbank (Edinburgh Airport) 3.7C all set new cold records for July. Scotland last Wednesday… This morning… Strathallan, Gogarbank and […]
This years El Nino is a big deal and greatest since 1998. It appears to be going for ‘super’ status. With an atmospheric ENSO index reaching +3 sigma, we’re seeing the greatest ENSO July amplification since 1948 according to WSI Energy. This MJO in response is something else and we can see the response in the tropical […]
Based on all the information presented to me at this time, the upcoming winter 2015-16 probably has the greatest level of uncertainty. El Ninos, like other big drivers are not created equally. Our warmest and cold winters have occurred during El Nino years. i.e, 2009-10 which was a moderate event and brought the UK’s coldest […]
The super strong MJO crossing the Pacific Ocean has the ‘conga line’ of topical trouble steaming westward full throttle. The first two systems threaten China with the second (Chan hom) potentially a major hit near Shanghai. The powerful MJO is likely down to the extremely warm waters covering a large part of the Pacific at the moment. The […]
What a difference a week makes and a south wind right? Last week saw UK temperatures reach a Mediterranean 25-36C. Areas across Scotland such as Aviemore topped out at 29C. This is what’s coming this Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a completely opposite wind direction… NORTHERLY! Frost Thursday morning? Here’s the GFS surface temps. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Yes, a rare July frost […]
As we head into the heart of July and indeed this summer season I can see some changes taking place. A cooler, wetter pattern beginning to show in the Southeast where it got pretty hot and dry last month. The big ridge up in the Pacific Northwest and even Southwest for that matter looks to be […]
Based on model output and consistency at driving a 594dm+ upper ridge into Europe, I quickly drew the conclusion back last weekend that countries in Europe may be dealing with some of the hottest weather in recorded history. That indeed came true and records have been tumbling from France up into the UK, across the Low Countries […]
With the increasingly huge influence of the El Nino but continued warm pool in the GOA, there is a great deal of unknowns regarding the upcoming winter season over the United States. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The exact SSTA profile over the Pacific will be key just like it’s been for the last 2 straight years keeping […]
The heat core continues to slow move away from western into central Europe with the worst of the oven-like conditions taking aim at the eastern Low Countries and particularly Germany where temps approached 40C. Here was yesterday morning’s lows. While it must have been near record warm over Belgium with minimums widely between 22-24C, it was […]
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