Rest of Europe
So far, so good regarding my autumn forecast. I highlighted the ‘end of Oct’ period as a particularly wet spell with increased threat of flooding rainfall. It appears we have a ‘flooding event’ now in progress across the West Highlands of Scotland with a near identical surface setup to November 2009 which brought the big […]
The latest QPF (Quantative Precipitation Forecast) is printing out the biggest 7-day rain totals over the UK I’ve seen in quite some time. The reason? A boundary with lot’s of moisture and embedded disturbances running along it will become stuck over the N Republic and Scotland. While we’re in for a persistent wet, windy spell starting tonight/tomorrow and quite possibly lasting through […]
As expected, we’re seeing some major early season snow burying parts of the Alps. All thanks to moisture Gonzalo pushing into the cold, polar air sweeping down from Russia. While the Alps get hammered, so northeast and east Europe shivers. Austria this morning. Image via @Weathertoski It’s not just the Alps or Germany but here’s […]
This has got to be the toughest winter forecast since starting seasonal forecasts back in 2009. Following a long series of mild winters (except for a few decent cold shots), I called 2009-10 right as the first nasty winter ‘in a long time’. By calling a bad winter in the face of mild was a bold call. It […]
It’s certainly the windy day we anticipated here across Scotland as well as Ireland and the rest of the UK. Gusts have topped 108 mph over a snowy, bitterly cold Cairngorm Summit where it feels between -15 and -20 as I type. Lot’s off bins blowing about the streets. The system will continue to sweep […]
Time to batten down the hatches for the first ‘storm’ of the 2014-15 season. BREAKING DOWN THE DETAIL… This won’t be anything we haven’t seen before but with models repeatedly showing a tight sub-978 centre crossing the North Highlands, expect a decent blow early tomorrow morning across much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. Widespread […]
It’s a wet and windy one this morning over the UK and more of the same is on it’s way. Gonzalo is now battering eastern Newfoundland and the Avalon Peninsula but by the time we waken Tuesday it will be bringing us here in the UK wind, rain and mountain snow. Here’s our surface chart this […]
Most of us are watching Gonzalo carefully as it heads UK-bound early next week but as for the here and now, we’ve got a mild, moist Azores air mass in place, drawn in by stiff southwest winds blowing along a long fetch cold front. Lows this morning didn’t get below 16.8C at Shoreham Airport. That’s above normal […]
Forget the seasonal forecast models (to an extent), they excite one minute and drop you into depression the next! When making up a seasonal forecast whether it be summer or winter, you MUST go back and look at what’s gone before and why it happened that way. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] A lot can decide on one […]
The tropics are stirring with Hurricane Gonzalo now a powerful Cat 4 storm taking aim at Bermuda then Newfoundland. My reason for mentioning this in the Europe post today is because we’re probably going to have Gonzalo strike our shores as a cold core low next week. One of MANY that will take aim over the […]
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