As forecast since late August, October and November should play catch up with the dry September with a highly Atlantic setup. That’s what we’ve got and will likely continue with through much of this month. While Scotland has been hit hard by significant rains in recent weeks, I think England and Wales will turn wetter.

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The way we get cold these patterns is a chilly northerly flow on the backside of passing lows or with skinny ridges which separate the lows. There’s hype of arctic blasts, snow and very cold weather coming this week and in coming weeks. I see NO EVIDENCE to suggest that. YET!

The good news is that I DO SEE snow and cold coming eventually. When exactly? I don’t know but with strat warming going on over the Pacific and N Asia, this brings comfort in knowing the setup is rather different to last year at this time.

So, by Tuesday into Wednesday northerly winds draw in colder air which brings hill snow showers etc and then high pressure settles things down for 24 hours before the next wind and rain bearing front sweeps in from the Atlantic. Expect a decent frost across a wide area of N Ireland, Scotland and N England. -6C is possible in the Highlands but it warms right back up Thursday/Friday as winds pick up from the south, pulling up warmer air once again.

Here’s the charts for the upcoming week or so.

Frost as a consequence of clear skies, light winds at this time of year!

Not trying to throw a warm/wet blanket on things but the below indexes, esp the NAO and positioning of the current strat warming, don’t support cold for the West of Europe next 2 weeks. It’s a little too early but I would be closely watching the warming over Siberia and the N Pacific, IF that’s progresses a little more over the pole or N Atlantic, then I would be sounding the alarm to a coming cold spell.

Yes there’s strat warming going on right now as you can see below but it favours the US, not UK. In fact this is the setup we saw during much of last winter! Good thing we don’t have a west QBO right?

Here’s the day 3-10 ECMWF 500mb height anomalies.

See video for more on this…

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