Rest of Europe
We’re seeing an early start to stratospheric warming over Siberia and the North Pacific Ocean. This appears to be fuelling early season arctic outbreaks into North America but for us here in Western Europe to waiting game continues. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] When it comes to cold here, we watch for a term known as sudden stratospheric […]
While winter is off to a fast start across many parts of the hemisphere, I must admit, I am getting excited at what I’m seeing for us. Until there’s clear evidence, I’m not jumping but notice the tanking in the Arctic Oscillation… [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] And yes, the North Atlantic Oscillation is going negative too… The […]
The Arctic Oscillation is returning to a negative state and this looks to be the firm trend as we head deeper into November. It also means a continuation in growth of the big snow cover we’ve already got. ALL things point to a big winter across the boreal hemisphere this year but the big question remains, where […]
As forecast since late August, October and November should play catch up with the dry September with a highly Atlantic setup. That’s what we’ve got and will likely continue with through much of this month. While Scotland has been hit hard by significant rains in recent weeks, I think England and Wales will turn wetter. […]
This seasonal forecast for the UK, Ireland and rest of Europe is based on the signals nature has already presented to us and data available as well as past analog years. With the development of a weak, possibly moderate El Nino into winter (central Pacific positioned), the progression into an easterly QBO within a downward trend in solar cycle 24 (but not minimum), a […]
Ahead of the next approaching CF, we have unusually warm air flooding the UK today. Even up here in Scotland, though cloudy and damp, it’s very mild for the final day of October. The SE where sunshine breaks out, we’re talking LOW 20s! Balmy at 850mb [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Temps here are actually up into the […]
Ahead of the next weather maker, we have some exceptionally warm air being tapped from the Azores. By Friday, factoring in a stiff but warm SW flow and plenty of sun ahead of the next front, we could see 21-22C around London. Had this been a day later (Nov 1st), then we would have been threatening the UK November […]
More ‘signs’ which suggest cold for down the road… Snow advancement/extent over Siberia through October has been greatest in decades… Check out this eye-catching graphic tweeted by Anthony Sagliani. Is this significant to our winter ahead? The OPI (October Pattern Index) has been firmly negative this year which can be a signal to cold for the approaching […]
After the saturation of the last 5 days over Scotland, WELCOME sunshine comes in from the north this afternoon, setting the stage for the first widespread RURAL frost tomorrow am while the wet, blustery conditions take a dive south. We have the cool northerly air bringing bright, crisp sunshine later today and tomorrow but the […]
Upwards of 7 INCHES of rain has fallen over the West Highlands since Friday evening and there’s little real easing over the next 24 hours. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] During tomorrow we see that stuck frontal boundary finally head south but not before rain increases in the very wettest areas later today. A very wet night and […]
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