Rest of Europe

Don’t pay attention to the latest piece in the Express, it’s utter rubbish. The winter waiting game continues with no solid evidence suggesting a colder pattern is in the near term. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Sure, we’re seeing some nice strong warming in the upper stratosphere but not down in the mid and low levels. Until then, our […]

In my winter forecast I brought up the winter of 2000-2001. There are some nice parallels to autumn of 2000 and this year showing up. While there’s some similarities, admittedly there are some opposites too. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As pointed out in yesterday’s post. This is ALL theory but seasonal outlooks are often weighed against past […]

Michael Ventrice tweeted the December MQI analog for Europe and it’s looking very similar to the latest CFS forecast. MQI CFS [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Modelling, both operational and ensemble are at least ‘trending’ towards a colder outcome to end Nov and start Dec across Europe in potential response to the continued warming of the stratosphere. Another thing worth noting is that […]

Well I started off writing this morning’s post yesterday afternoon but I’ve had to scrap it and write-up based on what I’m seeing. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Firstly we continue to see significant warming at 50mb around the pole and the weakening/stretching of the PV. This below, is the hallmarks of an approaching SSW event and models may […]

A slow moving frontal system drawing warm, moist air from the south has brought significant rain and consequential flooding across parts of the Republic and Northern Ireland. This falls very nicely with my long term ideas. Clearly stated back in late summer, I pegged November as a wet month where flooding would become an issue. We’re likely […]

The northern atmosphere appears ready to hit the reset button and by that I mean the strong blocking pattern we currently have looks set to break down with troughs ready to replace highs. That means a more neutral NAO and the AO within the next 10 days. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] While this may worry some, I believe this […]

While we continue to see progression of winter in many parts of the hemisphere, we here in the West of Europe remain waiting. Plenty of rain is in the forecast through the next 10 days and I’ve explained why all the blocking in the high latitudes yet we remain wet, windy and mild… (see recent […]

Apologies for no video yesterday. I hit the road by lunchtime and that was me out till early this morning so0 couldn’t fix the failed upload till 3am. Be sure to watch it! A lot of folks are looking at the -AO. Sure this is a key player in releasing arctic air south into the […]

While the Atlantic still rules the Western Europe pattern this upcoming work week, I’m finally beginning to see the first signs of a potential pattern shift and shift towards colder in the 1-2 week range. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] We know the Arctic Oscillation is TANKING with a highly amplified pattern setting up. With slackening of the PV, arctic cold pools are […]

The Atlantic remains king of the Western Europe pattern these days. I’m sure you’ve seen the images of severe flooding down in southern France into Italy. Unfortunately that setup remains into next week with more low pressure and increased flood potential. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As for us here in the UK and Ireland, well both GFS, […]