As we head into the early and particularly mid December time frame, the models wander, unsure as to what to do with the ridge/trough positions or even whether to build heights north or south.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Even in the much more advanced world of science and meteorology it’s amazing to how much the models still struggle.

Certainly for the end of the workweek and through this weekend, we find ourselves in a milder SSE flow with little real weather to speak of. As for next week, well it appears a fairly strong ridge builds in from the SW and this should bring cooler weather with an increased frost and fog risk. We actually saw this at the close of November back in 2009 just like we saw the indecisiveness in the models about the early and mid December period.

GFS surface through 168. That’s a pretty strong ridge…

 

It’s not a cold high but clear skies and light winds radiate daytime warmth back to space and this would likely make for seasonably cold nights, chilly days, especially where fog doesn’t clear.

Here’s the 5,000ft level temps. Notice it’s colder surrounding the high!

After spending a week to 10 days in a positive mode, the Arctic Oscillation is set to flip back negative.

The NAO however appears to remain largely above the neutral line.

Models are having a tough time ‘seeing’ what’s going on above and therefore it doesn’t know where to position the ridges and troughs. We will have to wait patiently as there’s little guidance.

One thing worth noting though. Notice WHERE that mean positive is setting up. OVER the UK and remember back to those cold spells I showed you back in 85 and 2009 and where the mean positive started and then ended up? UK to Greenland… Just a thought!

GFS at 284

ESP Control quite different but like the GFS it wants to have the core of the positive to our west which is a good sign.

As you can see, the models are pretty much all over the place.

See video more discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]