Our monotonous weather pattern remains and looks likely to remain through the rest of November into early December.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We remain almost ‘between weather’ or a no mans land currently with a trough to our west and ridge to our east. Atlantic fronts are pushing slowly across Ireland just now and this will bring a decent rain today and a decent rain to all parts of the UK later today and through tomorrow.

High pressure will build in from the SW into early and mid next week but a system riding a boundary will bring a soggy Sunday to southern parts of the UK during Sunday, perhaps into Monday. Mon and Tue nights could see a frost risk return as high pressure is likely to promote clearer skies.

As explained in this morning’s video, we have a split flow to our west and so one piece of the jet heads north and the other south, so little wind here.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts through the upcoming week.

GFS 500mb height anomalies show some Scandinavia to Greenland blocking but note the westerly flow underneath day 8 through 16!

As for all the hype being spouted around weather forums, social media and certain tabloids, the weather the US is having, ISN’T coming our way I’m afraid.

I’ve explained before (and in today’s video) that until we see the tremendous warming that we’re seeing now in the UPPER stratosphere down well towards 50, 60 and 70hpa, we aren’t going to see any true pattern change and shift to colder.

Look at the difference. Same time from but a difference of 30hpa.

That all being said…

If THIS were to happen (360 hours from now), then I would be getting excited!

That to me would be the trigger which sends a shock wave through the stratosphere, forcing the arctic reservoir into the mid-latitudes and likely to west Europe!

So, yes, there’s every reason to be optimistic. I still feel confident that winter will eventually come our way. The question however is when?

Be sure to watch today’s Europe video for more…

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]