There is good and bad in today’s write-up. In fact there’s two good and one bad. The two good news is that the models are starting to show cold. The other good thing is that BOTH GFS and ECMWF show pretty much the same thing. The bad news is that it’s showing something that’s about three weeks away and a lot can change in that time.

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Things are certainly getting interesting, even exciting but I am cautious because I’ve seen the models starting to show cold and wild cold at that before with the classic building, blocking high with full fetch easterly connecting Siberia with the UK and Ireland and as time progressed, the models swayed away and it turned out mild and wet with Atlantic weather dominating. It’s too far out yet to make a forecast but let’s watch this closely.

Yes, I apologise for any negativity and I guess I’m almost contradicting my own forecast which is for cold and the potential for some snow BEFORE Christmas. I guess it’s just because I can see the hype building and folks almost basing a ‘forecast’ on one model run only to see it disappear the following run.

Since the models are jumping on something around mid-December, let’s now watch the trend, let’s see if the models hold onto this idea. If it happens, it shouldn’t be a great surprise given the signals in play with the east QBO, near perfect North Atlantic tripole etc etc. It’s been shown many times in recent weeks and months that this winter should bring spells of snow and cold with a greater chance of seeing Greenland blocking.

We’ve been seeing the trend to building heights through the past week or so but models are now starting to show an actual colder outlook as these heights push west as I had said. Watch as we enter the winter and the atmosphere begins to respond.

What a difference to this time last year when it was all about the westerly flow. It’s clear to see that the Atlantic has a real fight this year and it would appear that it’s already starting to loose with the reverse in upper flow from west to east. The crucial thing to remember is that we need that blocking high to get far enough west or northwest of us or the cold doesn’t reach like we saw (for the most part) in 2011-12.

I showed this yesterday but will show it again.

Here’s the 500mb chart from back on Jan 6, 1985 following the SSWE. Yes I know it’s dangerous to throw up a big year like that but still…

Look at the similarity to what BOTH gfs and ecmwf have towards mid-December.

GFS

ECMWF surface at 360

GFS surface at 384

GFS 5,000ft temps at 384

ECMWF snow forecast through Dec 5

EPS control through Dec 9!

This is without any obvious SSWE but simply continued stress, strain and weakening of the polar vortex brought by warming.

See video for more!

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