NOTE: Video failed to upload this morning but should have it online later this evening (out today). Approx 9pm! Apologies…

Since the models (as expected) are wavering and struggling with the early to mid December period, let’s go back to the basics and see what we’ve got going for us this year compared to last.

Sure the Atlantic has a much weaker presence compared to last year and we’ve got all or most important signals which favour cold but that doesn’t mean cold is a given. UK winters are very hit and miss and probably only 1 out of 4 are colder than average, 1 in 8 well below average and 1 in 20 that’s extreme. However a lot of that’s down to the state of the AMO, PDO and solar as well as volcanic. Moral is we live on an island on the eastern side of an ocean, DOWNWIND of the prevailing westerlies. Not a favourable location for cold winters. Truth is even when it gets cold, it’s tempered by the warmer surrounding waters.

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Here are the good ‘signs’ for a colder than normal winter for Western Europe (& eastern North America) this year. Especially mid to late winter!

SST anomalies remain similar to that of late November 2009.

Now

Then

There’s TWO excellent cold signals. 1) the El Nino is coming on and ‘highly likely’ to shift it’s core of warmth out into the central region. 2) There’s an excellent tripole now over the North Atlantic which favours blocking towards Greenland.

QBO continues to dive into a firm easterly mode like 2009 and opposite of last year.

Let’s not forget that we’ve got the biggest N Hemisphere snow pack since at least 2000. This helps refrigerate the lower atmosphere over a much larger area. Ice is also up on recent years, it too acts as a natural refrigerator and supports a -AO winter also.

The general behaviour of the pattern and setup is very different to 2013.

SOI values remain firm negative which shows the El Nino coming on and should strengthen as we enter winter.

In the last 2 weeks we’ve seen recovery in the Arctic Oscillation with it returning to a positive phase but that appears to breakdown through the next 15 days as per the GFS ensemble forecast.

I think we can agree that there’s a firm NEGATIVE trend with the AO based on the below obs.

Here’s the analog for winter over W Europe/E North America with a MEAN winter AO at or below -1.5. Could we be heading there?

The NAO however appears to stay more positive or neutral but let’s watch this closely because when we see the blocking return to the arctic, I think there will be a response over the Greenland side too as the atmosphere enters that more wintertime state. This was something I highlighted in my winter forecast. I also stated that the next -AO phase is more likely to influence the UK and West of Europe based on seasonal adjustment.

The reality is this… even with all the above… it still doesn’t guarantee a cold winter unfortunately.

The solar situation has been the true thorn in my side this year. Purely based on the CURRENT positioning of solar cycle 24 (despite being the weakest or probably shortest in over 100 years), it doesn’t mirror any particular year which saw amazing and prolonged cold. All recent winters which saw a prolonged winter or extreme cold was during or near a minimum. Recent examples, 1985, 1995 and 2009.

That doesn’t mean it can’t happen though!

Be sure to watch this morning’s video. More detail discussing the above!

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