Apologies for no video yesterday. I hit the road by lunchtime and that was me out till early this morning so0 couldn’t fix the failed upload till 3am. Be sure to watch it!

A lot of folks are looking at the -AO. Sure this is a key player in releasing arctic air south into the mid-latitudes and we have seen a significant split of the vortex thanks to strat warming but as we saw last winter, if that strat warming isn’t occurring in a favourable region for Europe, we don’t reap the rewards. North America, Asia or even eastern Europe does instead. Too much attention and effort is drawn to the AO I’m afraid.

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Without the NAO going negative and the southward ‘building’ of blocking highs to our west, WE WON’T SEE A COLD OUTBREAK here in the UK and Western Europe.

I want to draw your attention to the CFSv2 weekly charts. Notice the WESTERLY orientation of the strong blocking to our north. This is allowing the Atlantic to still rule. Until we start to see a damming brought about by a building of heights from Greenland SOUTH into the North Atlantic Ocean, we won’t see the shut down of the westerlies and a reverse in the wind flow.

The model is hinting at something in week 4 perhaps as the Greenland high starts to poke south. This may shift the mean trough east more towards the UK and cause a northward buckling of the jet. This MAY bring in a different source of air mass than we’ve become so accustomed to in the last 12 months or so.

As I’ve stated all along, I do see colder times ahead with further PROGRESSION of the strat warming. December is the month to watch but the late November period may show us the evidence that something a little more exciting is coming.

The AO should remain negative and the NAO appears to be ‘trending’ negative.

The above all being said… about cold not truly appearing till next month… the newer runs of the ECMWF is certainly teasing us with something interesting!

Play close attention to the ISOBARS around the southern flank of that Scandi high… This is intriguing not so much for what’s ahead next week or the week after but it’s what the pattern is telling us for later down the road.

The warming continues at 10mb from Siberia into the NW of North America but notice at 384 hours the significant displacement of POLAR VORTEX well off the pole, in fact nearly reaching Scandinavia. This warming is progressive and appears to be pushing poleward. Eventually the rubber band of warmth we’ve had for a good year now looks be the thinning and ready to snap.

The above MAY signal cold for us week 1 and or 2 of December as warming pushes arctic air south towards the US and Europe!

The signs are there but we just need to be patient. Eventually this pattern will click into place for us!

Be sure to watch yesterday’s video for more.

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