After the saturation of the last 5 days over Scotland, WELCOME sunshine comes in from the north this afternoon, setting the stage for the first widespread RURAL frost tomorrow am while the wet, blustery conditions take a dive south.

We have the cool northerly air bringing bright, crisp sunshine later today and tomorrow but the front returns north Thursday bringing the warmer air back with it before the next Atlantic low swings more wind and rain into all areas of Ireland and the UK.

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That means an unsettled but fairly mild weekend then on the backside more cooler air filters in. One noticeable difference between yesterday and today’s run of the ECMWF is that it’s lost the substantial push of November-like air next week and actually drives multiple MOISTURE rich lows across the UK. That fits my overall thinking with ‘hyper wet’ conditions. I’ve stated before and will do so again.. folks down in England and Wales, look out! We will see flooding rains here too as we push through November…

Here are the latest surface charts through 240 hrs and notice how it really drives in the wet weather…

Watching these lows coming up from the S or SW into southern Britain, these could contain a fair amount of liquid. Autumn is going to way I had hoped! VERY WET!

Looking More Wet Than Cold Through First Half Of November

NAO is projected to go slightly negative in the upcoming 15 days so will be worth a watch but AO heads positive. I suspect we have more wet than cold through the first half of November. Look out for a taste of ‘November’ behind these lows though!

CFSv2 looks garbage to me. It shows warm and wet still for the winter right across the continent despite contradicting it’s own SST profile, east QBO and large model agreement for blocking. This DOESN’T MAKE SENSE! This has got to be the least reliable model…

CFSv2 winter sea surface temp anomaly forecast

Jamstec

See video for more…

UK/EUROPE WINTER FORECAST 2014-15 COMES OUT THIS SATURDAY!!

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