This seasonal forecast for the UK, Ireland and rest of Europe is based on the signals nature has already presented to us and data available as well as past analog years.

With the development of a weak, possibly moderate El Nino into winter (central Pacific positioned), the progression into an easterly QBO within a downward trend in solar cycle 24 (but not minimum), a -QPI (October pattern index) and significant Siberian snow cover…

A cold, potentially severe European winter looks likely with intrusions of cold and snow visiting the UK and Ireland

I believe the mainland of continental Europe will see the brunt of snow and cold this year with more mix further west towards the UK. In other words I suspect we have more fight between mild oceanic and cold continental for the UK and Ireland and based on the 3 month mean (Dec-Feb), we could find it turns out to be a largely ‘average’ winter.  I must stress that average or even warmer than normal winters can still produce memorable spells of snow and cold. Since 1983, I recall some big snowfalls during my school days of the early and mid 1990s. Not forgetting the record cold spell of December 1995 but those winters all had plenty of mild in between which brought up the average temperature.

December, January and February all look likely to see a mix of mild and cold but I urge caution at underestimating the intensity of any winter blast. I just don’t see any 20-30 day stretch of sustained winter cold this year based on solar cycle vs past years…

Europe could have a significant spell of winter weather with record cold and snow.

Mid To Late Winter Looks Coldest For UK & Western Europe

Mid to late winter looks coldest overall for Western Europe as I believe the El Nino influence comes into play more and with seasonal feedback, North Atlantic blocking may become more dominant. Mild influences from the Atlantic may weaken with Siberian air becoming more of a player late January into February perhaps extending into March.

The last downward trend in the solar cycle (23) was the early to mid 2000s which saw good spells of snow but these were dwarfed by mild in between.

The first true winter of my life time was 2000-01 which produced real cold and snow but even at that, we saw long spells of mild too, it’s just that when the snow and cold did hit, it hit hard.

There’s a difference between normal and extreme. The current solar state suggests room for significant cold and snow but not the extreme in terms of duration and frequency like a few years back.

The global pattern and drivers are different to last year. They all favour times of cold and this tells me that we could have 1-3 intrusions of cold from either the north or northeast (Siberia).

Britain’s most extreme ‘long lived’ winters occur during solar minimums (2009-10 most recent example) but during downward trends we can get shorter lived ‘extremes’ such as the cold outbreak of Dec 1995 which occurred near the minimum or the big snows of 2000-01 which occurred just after a maximum (like this year). 2008-09 is also on the table with significant spells of snowfall, particularly late on but it was also quite frequently mild during the heart of the season.

Though we have pretty much ALL main drivers (mentioned above) showing the cold signal, the solar is what’s troubling me. Even with a negative AO/NAO/OPI/significant snow cover over Siberia etc, we aren’t guaranteed cold like we saw a few years ago. The positioning of any blocking high is key. 2011-12 is a perfect example. Europe all the way west to the North Sea saw one of it’s worst winters on record but the majority of the UK was left mild. Yes England got in on the snow and cold for about 10 days but all in all it wasn’t a bad winter because of the blocking high sitting too close by.

The fact is, the solar cycle of 24 is heading DOWNWARD, not at a minimum and so I cannot call on a severe winter but more a mixed winter which could bring us some tough winter conditions at times. The long lasting and extreme winters of 2009-10/2010-11 are likely to return within the next few years when cycle 24 goes into the tank.

Let’s look closely at the above chart. Winter of 95-96 turned out largely unimpressive on paper (mean temp), however late December 1995 was about as extreme as it get’s with -20C recorded in Glasgow and an all-time record tying -27C at Braemar. This was as sunspot cycle 22 was nearly at a minimum. As for 2000-2001 we saw the coldest winter since 1996-97 with major spells of both snow and cold but there was also substantial mild spells. What’s interesting about the 2000-01 example is that it was during a weak El Nino year with early above normal Siberia snow cover and most importantly was that solar cycle 23 was just coming off a maximum with a sharp dip.

We are coming off the maximum of weaker solar cycle 24 and that means 2000-01 cannot be ruled out. That’s the extreme option in the ‘downward’ category. It was a proper winter but not as extreme as 2009-10.

500mb geopotential height anomaly for winter based on east QBO with weak modoki El Nino

Models agree nicely on projected SST anomalies with vary substantially with land temperature anomaly as seen below!

Current

CFSv2 forecast

Jamstec

A Sign Of Things To Come?

We’ve already seen stratospheric warming over Siberia and there appears to be more occurring at the moment. Worth watching the end of November into early December for potential colder weather pushing through Europe and even the UK/Ireland. This signal suggests the atmosphere is telling us what’s ahead!

Credit: NOAA

How Could Winter 2014-15 Become Unexpectedly Extreme?

Iceland’s Volcanic Influence

The ongoing volcanic activity over Iceland cannot be ignored as this ‘may’ help enhance high latitude blocking and trigger stratospheric warming events. A true eruption would make this highly likely but right now, there’s no big event like we saw with the eruption of Laki which drove a severe UK, Europe and hemispheric winter back in 1783. I highly suspect the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull back in April 2010 strongly contributed to the severe cold of December 2010 which produced the coldest December in over 100 years to the UK.

So to conclude, based on all evidence. This winter is likely to be more ‘typical’ but has the potential to bring us decent snow and cold but there will be plenty of mild too. What wins out between warm-cold when it’s all said and done, well that remains to be seen.

Most up-to-model Dec-Feb model forecasts

CFSV2

Temperature

Precipitation

Met Office (500mb anomalies)

Jamstec

Temperature

Precipitation

WILL HAVE A VIDEO TOMORROW DISCUSSING THIS WINTER FORECAST FURTHER!

Tags: arctic oscillation, cold, europe winter forecast 2014-15, north atlantic oscillation, official, snow, solar cycle, solar cycle 24, winter, winter forecast